By Paul Simao
LUANDA (Reuters) - Angola's ruling MPLA took aninsurmountable lead in the parliamentary election and could bedeclared the winner on Monday despite opposition protests thatthe poll was badly flawed.
With almost three-quarters of votes counted from thetwo-day poll, the MPLA is winning nearly 82 percent of the voteversus 10.5 percent for UNITA, the former rebel group andlargest opposition party in the oil-rich nation.
Based on these results, the MPLA (Popular Movement for theLiberation of Angola), in power since independence fromPortugal in 1975, was also leading in all 18 provinces. It waswithin reach of a coveted two-thirds of the 220-seatparliament, giving it the power to change the constitution.
But UNITA's vow to contest the election due to what itdescribes as voting irregularities at polling stations onSeptember 5 threatens to shatter the fragile politicalstability that has existed since the end of a 27-year civil warin 2002.
While admitting that the vote, the first in 16 years, hadbeen marred by organisational problems, European Union monitorssaid they had not endangered the electoral process and that nocases of violence were observed during the campaign or voting.
"The election marks a critical step for democracy despitethe organisation difficulties. The Angolan people participatedactively and voted freely," the EU mission said in a statementfollowing a press conference in Luanda.
Luisa Morgantini, the head of the mission, stopped short ofdeclaring the election legitimate and said observers wouldcontinue to monitor vote counting and investigate complaints.The EU observer team will issue a full report in two months.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso calledthe election a step toward consolidating multi-party democracy.
The Southern African Development Community had said thepoll was credible, transparent and free.
An MPLA victory is likely to be welcomed by investors,particularly oil firms, who are generally comfortable with thegovernment's pro-business policies. Angola rivals Nigeria assub-Saharan Africa's largest oil producer and its economy grewby 24 percent in 2007.
"It is not going to change the political landscape. Thesame government will carry on as before and it is veryfavourable to investors," said Indira Campos, a researcher withLondon-based think-tank Chatham House.
"FORCED TO VOTE"
The international community has been watching the voteclosely, hoping that Angola would defy its own history andemerge from the election with political consensus.
That hope dimmed in the chaos on Friday.
Richard Howitt, a Member of the European Parliament fromBritain, said on Monday he observed foreign voters being busedinto restive Cabinda province for the election and that Angolansoldiers had been present at some polling stations.
Separatists have waged a long campaign for independence inCabinda. About half of Angola's oil is produced off its shore.
Authorities denied wrongdoing but said there wereadministrative glitches in some areas, particularly in Luandaprovince, home to 21 percent of the nation's 8.3 millionvoters.
An extra day of voting was organised on Saturday, but themove failed to satisfy UNITA (National Union for the TotalIndependence of Angola), which demanded a re-vote and vowed tochallenge the vote in the Constitutional Court.
"There are people that were instructed, who were forced tovote, (for) a particular party. I wonder how this was electionwas free," UNITA leader Isaias Samakuva said in an interviewbroadcast on South Africa's SAFM radio on Monday.
Samakuva has ruled out any prospect the former rebel groupwould again take up arms against the government. The long warbetween the two sides killed half a million people.
In the last parliamentary election in 1992 the MPLA won 54percent to UNITA's 34 percent. UNITA rejected the results of aparallel presidential race and fighting resumed. The war endedin 2002 when rebel leader Jonas Savimbi was killed.
(Additional reporting by Michael Georgy in Johannesburg andIngrid Melander in Brussels; editing by Matthew Tostevin)
