By Paul Simao
LUANDA (Reuters) - The ruling MPLA may be declared thewinner of Angola's disputed parliamentary election as early asMonday when authorities release a round of results expected toshow the party with an insurmountable lead.
With almost three-quarters of votes counted, the MPLA iswinning nearly 82 percent of the vote versus 10.5 percent forUNITA, the largest opposition party in the oil-rich nation.
Based on these results, the MPLA, which has ruled Angolasince independence from Portugal in 1975, was also leading inall 18 provinces.
But UNITA's vow to contest the election due to what itdescribes as voting irregularities threatens to shatter thefragile political stability that has existed since the end of a27-year civil war in 2002.
An MPLA victory is likely to be welcomed by investors,particularly oil firms, who are generally comfortable with thegovernment's pro-business policies. Angola rivals Nigeria assub-Saharan Africa's largest oil producer and its economy grewby 24 percent in 2007.
"It is not going to change the political landscape. Thesame government will carry on as before and it is veryfavourable to investors," said Indira Campos, a researcher withLondon-based think-tank Chatham House.
The international community has been watching the voteclosely, hoping that Angola would defy its own history andemerge from the election with political consensus.
That hope dimmed in the chaotic early hours of voting onFriday. Hundreds of polling stations opened late or not at alland many did not have the registration lists necessary toidentify voters.
Authorities denied wrongdoing but admitted there wereadministrative glitches in some areas, particularly in Luandaprovince, home to 21 percent of the nation's 8.3 millionvoters.
An extra day of voting was organised on Saturday, but themove failed to satisfy UNITA (National Union for the TotalIndependence of Angola), which demanded a re-vote and vowed tochallenge the vote in the Constitutional Court.
"There are people that were instructed, who were forced tovote, (for) a particular party. I wonder how this was electionwas free," UNITA leader Isaias Samakuva said in an interviewbroadcast on South Africa's SAFM radio on Monday.
Samakuva has ruled out any prospect the former rebel groupwould again take up arms against the government. The long warbetween the two sides killed half a million people.
OBSERVERS SPLIT
International monitors were split over whether to give theAngolan election a clean bill of health.
Observers from the Southern African Development Communityhave said the poll was credible, transparent and free. But aEuropean Union mission has raised concerns aboutirregularities.
The EU team is expected to deliver its report on Monday.
The results, if they hold, represent a stunning collapse insupport for the opposition and an overwhelming mandate for theruling party, which has touted the election as a showcase forthe country's recovery from the war.
The MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) iswithin reach of a coveted two-thirds of the 220-seatparliament, giving it the power to change the constitution.
In the last parliamentary election in 1992 the MPLA won 54percent to UNITA's 34 percent.
That poll was overshadowed by a parallel presidential racethat ended when UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi withdrew from asecond round and resumed the war after accusing President JoseEduardo dos Santos of cheating.
The UNITA chief was killed in an ambush in 2002.
(Additional reporting by Michael Georgy in Johannesburg;editing by Angus MacSwan)
