By Lucy Hornby
BEIJING (Reuters) - China, worried about an ageingpopulation, is studying scrapping its controversial one-childpolicy but will not do away with family-planning policiesaltogether, a senior official said on Thursday.
With the world's biggest population straining scarce land,water and energy resources, China has enforced rules torestrict family size since the 1970s. Rules vary but usuallylimit families to one child, or two in the countryside.
"We want incrementally to have this change," Vice Ministerof the National Population and Family Planning Commission ZhaoBaige told reporters in Beijing.
"I cannot answer at what time or how, but this has become abig issue among decision makers," Zhao said. She added that thecurrent plan was to study the issue seriously and responsibly,but avoid sudden changes that might cause a spike in births.
"Minority groups already have two children, even three, andin the cities like Shanghai and Beijing, a lot of only childrenare already released (to have two), but the most important isthose in the middle like in Henan... nearly a hundred millionpeople, but strongly influenced by the classical way, they wanta son, and they are already very fragile environmentally."
Teams studying the issue would have to consider the strainof China's huge population on its scarce resources, popularattitudes, and how much of a social net China can afford toprovide without the traditional reliance on large families tocare for the aged, she said.
Surveys show that 60 percent of Chinese younger than 30want a maximum of two children, and only a "very small" numberwant more than three, Zhao said.
The average number of children that would be born to awoman over her lifetime has decreased to 1.8 in China today,from 5.8 in the 1970s, and below the replacement rate of 2.1.
RELAXATION
In recent years, China has sought to soften its draconianand often controversial family control policies, which haveincluded forced abortions and other punitive measures.
But local officials remain under intense pressure to keepnumbers down, leading to skewed statistics and sometimesbrutality.
The country is now relying more on education, especiallyabout contraception, said Zhao, in charge of internationalcooperation, education and communication at the ministry.
China says its policies have prevented several hundredmillion births and boosted prosperity, but experts have warnedof a looming social time-bomb from an ageing population andwidening gender disparity stemming from a traditionalpreference for boys.
Normally, between 103 and 107 boys are born for every 100girl infants, but in China, 118 boys are born for every 100girls, Zhao said. Experimental policies include trying toimprove women's welfare and girls' access to schooling.
Still, the government has previously expressed concern thattoo many people are flouting the rules.
State media said in December that China's population wouldgrow to 1.5 billion people by 2033, with birth rates set tosoar over the next five years.
Officials have also cautioned that population controls arebeing unravelled by the increased mobility of China's 150million-odd migrant workers, who travel from poor rural areasto work in more affluent eastern cities.
China has vowed to slap heavier fines on wealthy citizenswho flout family planning laws, in response to the emergence ofan upper class willing to pay standard fines to have morechildren.
(Editing by Sugita Katyal and Jerry Norton)
