Nobody seriously considered that Scotland might secede from the United Kingdom, but public opinion surveys are starting to show that this option is on gaining support. The campaign for secession is rife with intense and prolonged emotions.
Fears of secession hurt markets yesterday, which until now were mute on the issue. Markets across Europe fell and the British pound fell against the US dollar. This is a first sign that the Scottish economy wants to break free. These anxieties could lead to the correction that people have been looking for despite a continuing bullish spree. But the consequences could extend even further. Many companies could flee from Scotland, and investments there could dry up as well. In British parliament, voices are rallying to support leaving the EU.
Meanwhile, it is very likely that the crisis between Prime Minister Cameron and the Bank of England will drive up interest rates. Economically, Spanish companies with interests in the United Kingdom will be affected. These include IAG and Iberdrola. Politically, the secession spirit will recharge Catalonia's attempt to secede from Spain. If Scotland can secede, then a complex political and economic conflict could infect Europe.