The match that Vladimir Putin struck in Ukraine has erupted into the kind of fire that destroys national economies and human lives. What is the worst that could happen as the conflict develops? A war that Europe and the United States want desperately to avoid. But Russia wants the Ukraine to remain weak so that it can control the Crimea.
Because the Crimea is Putin's Mediterranean secret weapon and a negotiating tool, and he will not give it up easy. This makes the region nervous. If Putin shuts off the natural gas lines, which run from the Middle East through Ukraine. Only Germany imports as much Russian natural gas, which equals the total amount that Spain consumes annually. There have been no cutoffs so far, but Ukraine is starting to horde gas just in case prices spike as they have for sugar, wheat and oil. When people rush to stock up on these materials, the war drums start to beat.
Markets fell on both sides of the Atlantic and in Russia, where despite Putin's tenacity, this is not the time to start a conflict. The ruble tumbled and Russia's central bank raised interest rates to keep it afloat. Allies are going to enact economic sanctions and freeze accounts with Russia if it continues to pressure Ukraine.
Obama and heads of state throughout Europe have to decide whether to help Kiev and block Putin before the conflict, which is putting even more stress on a politically and economically weak Europe, interferes with recovery in the region. During a moment as precarious as this, our leaders should act decisively in order to avoid a situation that risks human lives and economic security.