@ The White House
On Thursday, the President will attend closed press meetings at the White House.
@ Wall Street
Retail sales are expected to inch up in December, with auto sales contracting (albeit very slightly) for the first time since August; gasoline station sales falling for the third month in a row on lower gasoline prices; and sales ex-autos and gasoline up 0.4%, better than November's 0.2% increase.
Light vehicle sales edged down to 13.5 million units in December from November's 13.6 million units. The supply chain disruptions from the earthquake in Japan have eased considerably and pent-up demand is being released - 13.5 million units is still a relatively robust number. Retail sales excluding autos are expected to rise 0.2%, the same rate as in November.
Gasoline station sales will be reduced by lower gasoline prices, but that is good news for the consumer mood and consumer non-energy spending.We expect holiday retail sales - defined as not seasonally adjusted November plus December total retail sales, less autos, less gasoline, less food services, less non-store outlets - to rise 4.8% from last year, with approximately 45% of the increase due to higher prices. Holiday sales rose 5.2% in 2010, after two consecutive years in negative territory.
Last year holiday sales were slightly north of $450 billion dollars. The new game in town is e-commerce retail sales. IHS Global Insight projects e-commerce retail sales (not seasonally adjusted) to be in the $60 billion ballpark for the fourth quarter of 2011, up almost 13% over the fourth quarter of 2010.