Even though Zapatero´s intends to finish his term of office, in private meetings he has told directors of the CiU that elections are contingent on how the Spanish economy fares in the near future.
In order to stay on until March of 2012 as intended, he is clinging to hopes that the EU´s agreement on a second Greek recovery plan will calm markets, that recent Spanish stress tests provide satisfactory results, that tourism is active and that summer employment improves.
Zapatero wants to hold on long enough to see that regional governments of the PP are forced to apply budget cuts.
Socialists are already accusing Cospedal of delaying budget cuts in Castilla-La Mancha until after elections. Zapatero´s strategy shows his impotence in adopting reforms.
Where is the sense in him pushing a handful of reforms that won?t be carried out until his successor´s term? Trusting all to his headstrong vision for the future, Zapatero is once again erring on the side of unfounded faith: the markets have made it clear that they are capable of destroying a country?s economy in a single day.
They have done it to the peripheral countries, who are now trying to bail themselves out by following strict recovery plans to make up losses. Pressured by their risk premium, Italy just launched an extreme program.
On the horizon are tough fiscal policies, lower pensions, lower salaries, more years spent working, less healthcare. In short, a reduction in the size of El Estado del Bienestar, which has snowballed tremendously until now. That´s what we can look forward to.
