@ Wall Street
Initial claims are expected to rise, but on an adjusted basis will probably sift again, to 426,000 in the week ending July 2. Barely-moving, jobless claims just came in at 428,000 from the prior week's rise to 429k.
The market is tense to see when possible early auto plant closures will factor in to the readings, and given the mundane changes recently (single-digit movement in four of the past five weeks) these mild changes could be the calm before the storm.
On the other hand, there is more talk of Wall St. downsizing more than the auto world, so the timing of the seasonals may prove accurate in smoothing out recurring industry trends after all.
The ADP report has returned to persistent underestimation, and we look for that trend to continue in June with a print of about +55k private payrolls. That would be a modest improvement over May's +38k reading, and about 60k shy of our forecast of +115k for BLS private payrolls on Friday.
Despite a couple of close calls this year, ADP continues to be a rather unreliable guide to the BLS figures it's supposed to track, though it may be a valuable anecdote on its own.
The ADP report will also give a valuable signal regarding the relative health of the service sector labor market. We'll be watching it carefully, along with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released later in the morning, as one of a scant few service sector employment signals to come before the employment report itself.
@ The White House
In the morning, the President and the Vice President will receive the Presidential Daily Briefing, and the President will meet with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Later, the President and the Vice President will meet with Congressional Leadership in the Cabinet Room to discuss the ongoing efforts to find a balanced approach to deficit reduction.
In the afternoon, the President will participate in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony in the Oval Office. At this event, the President will receive the credentials from foreign Ambassadors recently posted in Washington. The presentation of credentials is a traditional ceremony that marks the formal beginning of an Ambassador?s service in Washington.
