Tense Haiti awaits results of turbulent elections

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Haiti is bracing for results on Tuesday of its troubled elections, which have generated fraud charges, protests and sporadic violence and are widely expected to go to a deciding second round in January.

More than a week after the U.N.-backed November 28 presidential and legislative vote was held amid scenes of confusion at some polling stations, the Caribbean country's Provisional Electoral Council is due to announce the preliminary officials results.

Out of an original field of 18 candidates, the presidential contest is seen by pundits as a three-horse race between opposition matriarch and former first lady Mirlande Manigat, popular musician Michel Martelly, and government technocrat Jude Celestin, a protege of outgoing President Rene Preval.

For a first-round win, a candidate would need to gain more than 50 percent of the votes. With the open presidential field making this unlikely, a run-off between the two leading vote-winners would be held, provisionally set for January 16.

Caribbean media reports citing unofficial results have predicted a run-off between Martelly and Manigat.

The international community has been hoping the elections, held amid a deadly cholera epidemic, can produce a stable, legitimate new leadership to steer Haiti's recovery from the huge January 12 earthquake that killed more than 250,000 people.

But since the November 28 vote, U.N. peacekeepers and international election observers have been grappling with repeated allegations of "massive fraud" made by more than half of the 18 presidential candidates, recurrent street protests and fears of worse violence that could still come.

The U.N. peacekeeping mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), which has more than 12,000 troops and police deployed in support of Haitian police, has appealed to candidates and their supporters to remain calm, respect the law and avoid violence.

"This coming phase in the electoral process requires a peaceful and serene atmosphere," the joint Organisation of American States/Caribbean Community election observer mission said in its own statement.

"POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE POST-ELECTION LIMBO"

While acknowledging "the irregularities, the disorganization and the incidents of vandalism and violence which had marred Election Day", the OAS/Caricom team has cautiously endorsed the polls so far as generally valid.

But the group of presidential candidates alleging fraud and calling for a cancellation of the vote sent several thousand noisy protesters onto the streets of the capital over the last week and pledged more unrest if the elections continued.

Adding to tensions, Martelly, a charismatic star of Haiti's Kompa dance music who has mobilized thousands of boisterous supporters in his campaign, has said he will not accept a result that puts Preval protege Celestin in the run-off.

Martelly has repeatedly accused Preval, Celestin and their Inite (Unity) platform of trying to steal the election through fraud and manipulation of the Provisional Electoral Council, a suspicion that finds resonance among many poor Haitians.

"If Martelly isn't president the country will explode. They're going to cut heads, burn houses. There will be civil war. We voted for him and we demand they listen to our votes," said Michine Rene, 32, a street vendor.

"I don't want a second round, there's too many problems, too much discussion. As long as it's not Celestin, I don't care who wins." said Lune Jean Jules, 42, a pastor.

Celestin's well-funded campaign -- his green and yellow campaign posters dominated in the rubble-strewn streets of the earthquake-ravaged capital Port-au-Prince -- was nevertheless undermined by popular discontent over Preval's performance in responding to the earthquake and the cholera crises.

The ruling Inite coalition has accused Martelly, Manigat and the group of candidates who are repudiating the polls of trying to orchestrate "an electoral coup d'etat".

Analysts said an extension of the already turbulent and contested electoral process into a second round would increase the opportunities for violence and unrest.

"So Haiti will be in that potentially explosive post-election limbo in all likelihood until January," said Markus Shultze-Kraft, who leads the governance team at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged the candidates and their supporters to respect the law and shun violence, warning unrest will only hinder the fight against the unchecked cholera epidemic that has killed more than 2,000 people.

(Additional reporting by Allyn Gaestel in Port-au-Prince; Writing by Pascal Fletcher; Editing by Eric Walsh)