By Richard Balmforth
MINSK (Reuters) - Belarus police clamped down swiftly on planned public protests against President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday as he told an open-air rally that a plot was afoot to overthrown his long rule.
Social network sites run by mainly young protesters had urged their supporters to begin clapping as soon as the authoritarian Lukashenko, in power since 1994, began making a traditional Independence Day declaration.
Opposition to Lukashenko, once dubbed the "last dictator in Europe" by the U.S. Bush administration, has grown bolder in the tightly controlled ex-Soviet republic of 9.5 million as it struggles to overcome a currency crisis.
The balance of payments crisis was caused by 30-40 percent hikes in public sector wages and pensions last year aimed at ensuring Lukashenko's comfortable re-election in December, but which helped create a current account trade deficit.
That led to a 36 percent devaluation in May of the Belarussian rouble which virtually wiped out the gains of the wage rises and has now severely curbed companies' means of purchasing vital imports.
The crisis has emboldened a younger wave of protesters, outside the established opposition mainstream, to issue online calls for "silent" protests, marked only by clapping.
Police and state security who turned out in large numbers for Sunday's rally at a wartime memorial site on Minsk's Avenue of the Victorious quickly seized the few people who applauded.
A Reuters correspondent saw one man in his 30s begin applauding as Lukashenko, dressed in a military uniform, began to speak. Police moved in and he was led away.
Even before Lukashenko began speaking, plain-clothes police led away several young people apparently identified as potential protesters as they tried to mingle with Lukashenko's supporters.
The site "Revolution through a social network" -- which was shut down on Sunday -- scheduled other protests for later in the day though heavy rain potentially threatened these plans.
Lukashenko, 56, speaking before a military parade on Belarus's Independence Day, said he viewed public protests as part of a plot to overthrow him which he intended to stop.
"(Somebody) is trying to copy a 'coloured revolution' scenario here," he said, referring to a series of peaceful protests that led to the change of leadership in ex-Soviet republics such as Georgia and Ukraine in 2003-2004.
"They want to bring us to our knees," the former Soviet state farm director declared. "This is not going to happen."
Though protest groups appear to be growing bolder in Belarus, diplomats and other observers do not see any immediate threat to his grip on power.
Through populist policies and forceful personality, he has forged a profile of "father of the people" which goes down well particularly in outlying country areas.
There are no signs of disloyalty from members of his government or within the ranks of the powerful security forces.
More particularly, there are no signs that the sporadic protests by young intellectuals mainly in the capital Minsk have found any echo with a broader section of the working population that could lead to a groundswell of opinion against him.
But the crisis has deepened his isolation internationally and there is a sharper edge now to Belarus's crucial dealings with Russia.
RUSSIA DRIVES HARD BARGAIN
Long a pariah in the West because of his rough handling of the political opposition, Lukashenko is being pushed further towards Russia which long subsidised the Belarussian economy with cheap oil and gas supplies.
Moscow has backed disbursement of $3 billion of bailout money over three years to Belarus.
But it is increasingly pressing a harder bargain in economic relations, saying it wants state-held sectors of the economy privatised for sell-off to Russian big business.
The United States and the European Union have imposed travel sanctions on Lukashenko and a large number of figures in the Belarussian establishment over a police crackdown on the opposition last December and acted to restrict the operations of some key Belarussian companies.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Friday singled out Belarus for special mention as a country where political rights were being repressed.
"We should speak out when countries like Belarus brutally represses the rights of its citizens or where we see opposition figures facing politically motivated prosecution or governments refusing to register political parties," she told a pro-democracy gathering in Lithuania.
"This economy was good for as long the credit was good from Russia. That has all changed now. We need a government we can trust. I believe the autumn here is going to be very interesting," 45-year-old Sergei Pesenko told Reuters on Sunday.
Pesenko and his wife who attended the military rally defended the young protesters who were arrested. "They are not behaving aggressively. They are intellectuals. It is wrong to treat them like this," he said.
(Additional reporting by Andrei Makhovsky)
