By Linda Sieg and Chikafumi Hodo
TOYAKO, Japan (Reuters) - Prospects that the G8 would reacha meaningful agreement to how best to fight global warming attheir annual summit dimmed on Sunday as leaders began arrivingin northern Japan with a raft of global problems on theirminds.
Climate change is high on the agenda of the July 7-9 summitof rich nations at a luxury hotel in Toyako, Hokkaido, and of aMajor Economies Meeting on July 9 that brings the G8 togetherwith eight other countries including China, India and Brazil.
Global inflation driven by soaring food and fuel prices andAfrican poverty will also be discussed, along with issues aswide-ranging as Zimbabwe's election crisis and North Korea'snuclear programme.
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who arrived inHokkaido needing a successful summit to bolster limp ratings,wants to add to momentum for U.N.-led talks on a new frameworkbeyond limits agreed under the Kyoto Protocol, which expire in2012.
Those negotiations are due to conclude in Copenhagen inDecember next year.
But wide gaps among Group of Eight members and betweenadvanced and developing countries have raised doubts about thechances for progress beyond last year's summit in Germany,where G8 leaders agreed to "seriously consider" a global goalof halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
"I don't think we're expecting a deal. That will come underthe United Nations' auspices in Copenhagen next year," CanadaEnvironment Minister John Baird told reporters en route toJapan.
"What we hope is that we can get some momentum toward asolid progress on climate change."
The G8 comprises Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan,Russia, Canada and the United States.
FUZZY DEAL
Activists and the European Union want the G8 to agree tothe 2050 goal discussed in Germany and set 1990 as the baseyear, and say advanced nations should set their own firmmid-term goals for reductions by 2020.
Japan wants the leaders to agree to the 2050 goal butwithout specifying a base year.
U.S. President George W. Bush, who was to meet Fukuda afterarriving in Hokkaido, insists Washington will only set targetsif big emerging economies such as China are on board as well.
"Will the effort to be announced by the G8 be convincingenough to get the emerging countries to say 'OK, we're readynow to come on board'? If we can get that in writing at Toyako,we'll have done our job," a French official said.
But an aide to French President Nicholas Sarkozy said hewas not optimistic about reaching an agreement on the issue.
Analysts and diplomats have said that the G8 leaders werelikely to craft a fuzzy agreement on a long-term goal to allowFukuda to save face, but that real progress will likely have towait until a new U.S. president takes office in January.
"Both advanced and developing countries are close to anagreement on the long-term target," Japanese EnvironmentMinister Ichiro Kamoshita told NHK public TV.
"China and India were not against the idea at theenvironment ministers meeting. We now want the United States tomake a firm commitment and take a step forward at the summit."
LEADERS AND PROTESTERS
Climate experts want advanced countries to commit toreducing emissions by 25-40 percent by 2020. Tokyo andWashington say specific interim targets are not on the table inHokkaido, although leaders are likely to acknowledge the needfor advanced countries to set them.
But a deal that falls short of mid-term targets is unlikelyto satisfy either environmentalists or Fukuda's domesticcritics, who say Tokyo should at least come up with a figure ofits own.
With the attendance of several African leaders, this is thelargest gathering since G8 summits began more than threedecades ago at the Chateau de Rambouillet outside Paris inNovember 1975 to discuss the oil crisis and a world recession.
Some charge that the summit, which draws huge mediacoverage, countless activists and sometimes violent protests,has got out of hand. Twenty-two leaders will be in Hokkaido.
Thousands of anti-G8 activists have poured into Hokkaido toprotest the rich countries' cosy club. Some will be staying inthree camp grounds in the vicinity, with a heavy policepresence on hand to try to keep them from disrupting thesummit.
"We feel honoured that my camp was chosen as the site. Fromwhat I'm hearing, I support their activity," said Akeji Takai,the owner of one campsite about 20 km (12 miles) from thevenue.
"We've held several meetings with local households ... butpeople are worried how this will develop."
(Additional reporting by Chisa Fujioka and Emmanuel Jarry)
(Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)
