By Pawel Sobczak and Marcin Goclowski
WARSAW (Reuters) - The Polish ruling party's second-in-command, Ewa Kopacz, has emerged as clear favourite to be the next prime minister after incumbent Donald Tusk's departure to Brussels, where he is to take over as president of the European Council.
Kopacz, who has been a member of parliament since 2001, when Tusk's Civic Platform (PO) party was created, is one of his close allies and has served as parliamentary speaker.
Although she has already declared her readiness to take over the premiership, she faces a daunting task succeeding her boss.
Tusk, a firm but conciliatory politician, has been the main driving force behind the success of Civic Platform and some analysts believe his departure could drag his party to defeat at next year's domestic elections.
The party is already trailing in opinion polls to the largest opposition party, the conservative Law and Justice (PiS).
Kopacz, 56, a paediatrician and the divorced mother of an adult daughter, was a health minister in the first Tusk's government, retaining the sensitive post for the whole term.
"Ewa Kopacz is the most serious candidate for the Prime Minister's job for political reasons," a senior ruling party source said. "What helps her is that she is a first deputy chairman in PO and also a very close ally of the PM."
Kopacz would become Poland's second female prime minister in history, after Hanna Suchocka who governed for less than 11 months in 1992-93.
The next most likely successor to Tusk is defence minister Tomasz Siemoniak, coalition politicians say.
A senior junior coalition partner source said Kopacz has the advantage of having firm roots within the ruling party, while Siemoniak has proved himself to be a great organiser by restructuring the Polish army.
"When it comes to the PM job, the players' bench in PO is long. All we need to do is to make sure everything is conducted in a smooth manner," Civic Platform's respected European Parliament MP Dariusz Rosati told public broadcaster TVP Info.
"We have heavyweights such as Commissioner Janusz Lewandowski, former PM Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, Ewa Kopacz, Tomasz Siemoniak, former European Parliament head Jerzy Buzek," he added.
NEXT STEPS
Polish media has also speculated about the chances of the foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, but he is highly regarded in his current post, crucial for Poland during the Ukraine crisis. At the same time, he is also vulnerable to opposition attack as one of the main figures in a leaked tape scandal.
Poland's government spokeswoman declined to comment on potential successors on Sunday but said Tusk would outline the next steps to be taken, probably on Tuesday.
Tusk is expected to offer the government's resignation within a few weeks, before he takes up his new role as head of European Council at the beginning of December.
President Bronislaw Komorowski, Tusk's political ally, will then have 14 days to appoint a new government to lead Poland to the 2015 general election.
Analysts expect the new government to pursue policies already outlined by Tusk, including fiscal loosening and the raising of the lowest pensions and benefits for families, aimed at boosting the government's support before the vote.
Support for PO, in power since 2007, was dented by the eavesdropping scandal in June involving senior government figures.
(Writing by Marcin Goclowski; Editing by Rosalind Russell)
