By Jeff Franks
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Texas was supposed to be a bastion ofsupport for Hillary Clinton in the battle for the U.S.Democratic presidential nomination, but it may turn out to beher Alamo.
Her wide lead in Lone Star state polls has disappeared, andexperts say it is looking more and more like her last standagainst Barack Obama.
In one of history's most famous battles, Texas independencefighters tried to stop the Mexican army at the Alamo in 1836,but they were wiped out by a larger force that overwhelmedthem.
In this case, it is not soldiers, but Obama's momentum,threatening to do the same thing to Clinton's presidentialaspirations.
After winning 11 straight contests, Obama, an Illinoissenator, has overtaken Clinton in the Texas polls, erasing adouble-digit lead she held a month ago.
A Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll released onSaturday showed Obama leading 45 percent to 43 percent. Thesurvey had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Texas and Ohio will vote on Tuesday in must-win primariesfor Clinton, a New York senator.
"It is Hillary's last stand and increasingly looks like itwon't be successful," said Matthew Wilson, political scientistat Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
"At this point, Obama can do no wrong. He's on anincredible ride and the air hasn't started coming out of hisballoon yet."
Texas, next door to former President Bill Clinton's homestate of Arkansas, was supposed to be Clinton country.
The Clintons forged strong ties to Texas Democrats whileworking in the state during the 1972 presidential campaign ofGeorge McGovern and had historic ties to black and Hispanicvoters.
But Obama, according to recent polls, has taken big bitesout of the Clinton coalition by splitting the white vote andwinning sweeping support from black voters.
HISPANIC VOTES
Clinton is pinning her hopes largely on a big Hispanic votein her favour.
Hispanics, by some estimates, make up about 20 percent ormore of registered voters in Texas, compared to 12 percent forblacks and 66 percent for whites.
A Texas A&M University poll conducted February 18-24,showed Hispanics favouring Clinton over Obama 62 percent to 22percent.
But a more recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll,conducted Tuesday through Thursday, found Clinton's edge amongHispanics had dropped to 55 percent, versus 33 percent forObama.
Texas A&M political scientist Sylvia Manzano said Obama hasgained Hispanic support because he has had two weeks since thelast primaries to campaign in Texas.
"What we've seen in the rest of the country is that thelonger he has in a state, the more support he gets," Manzanosaid.
Obama got help in strongly Hispanic south Texas last weekfrom U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, who sang a songin fractured Spanish at a rally in Laredo.
But the Clinton family, including daughter Chelsea, isworking hard to shore up Hispanic support.
"There was a Clinton in south Texas every day last week,"Manzano said.
A record turnout is expected throughout the state, wherelong lines have marked early voting. Armed police officers willbe stationed at polling places in San Antonio because such bigcrowds are expected.
With John McCain well ahead in the race for the Republicanpresidential nomination, and because Texans can vote in eitherparty's primary, Republicans have been voting in the Democraticrace, University of Houston political scientist Richard Murraysaid.
Most are voting for Obama because they want to keep Clintonout of the White House, he said.
"We've always had our quota, plus some, of Hillary haters.T hey think they can drive a stake through her presidentialheart, and they are hammering away with gusto," Murray said.
(Additional reporting by Ed Stoddard in Dallas and JimForsyth in San Antonio; Editing by Stacey Joyce)
