By Dean Yates
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Powerful Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadrwill decide within days whether to extend or scrap his MehdiArmy militia ceasefire, a move that will have big repercussionsfor security in Iraq.
U.S. military officials say Sadr's six-month truce order onAugust 29 has played a big part in reducing sectarian violenceand clashes between the militia and U.S. and Iraqi forces.
A return to hostilities could risk those security gains ata time when Iraqi leaders have begun making some progresstoward reconciling majority Shi'ites and minority Sunni Arabs.
"It's critical that Sadr continues to observe theceasefire," said Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow and Iraqexpert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
Sadr had not made up his mind about the truce, hisspokesman Salah al-Ubaidi said on Wednesday.
"In the coming few days he will decide," Ubaidi said.
Many Mehdi Army members and Sadrist political leaders saythey want the truce ditched, accusing the security forces ofusing it to detain many of Sadr's followers.
Ubaidi said Sadr would issue a statement around February 23if he was renewing the truce. Silence would mean it was over.
The son of a revered Shi'ite cleric killed under SaddamHussein, Sadr led two uprisings against U.S. forces in 2004.
He imposed the ceasefire after deadly clashes in Augustbetween the Mehdi Army and security forces allied with a rivalShi'ite organisation, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC),in the holy city of Kerbala killed dozens of people.
Sadr vowed to reorganise the splintered militia, which hadalso been blamed for much of the sectarian fighting in Baghdadthat tipped Iraq close to all-out civil war.
The U.S. military commander in Iraq, General DavidPetraeus, told Reuters last week that he expected theanti-American cleric to extend the freeze. A senior official inthe Shi'ite-led administration had been told the same thing.
PARTIAL FREEZE?
An official in Sadr's office in the southern city of Basrasaid the cleric might announce a partial lifting of the truce,perhaps in some provinces where followers had been targeted.
A prominent Mehdi Army commander in Baghdad said hebelieved Sadr would end the ceasefire.
"If he does not ... there must be exceptions -- of whichthe most important one is self-defence," said the commander.
The U.S. military has praised Sadr for the truce but hasstill pursued what it calls "rogue" Mehdi Army militants, whocommanders say get funding and weapons from neighbouring Iran.
A U.S. official in Baghdad said Sadr had used the past sixmonths to weed rogue elements out of the militia, which hastens of thousands of members in Baghdad and southern Iraq.
But he said tensions remained high with the government andthe Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which has strong influencewith the security forces and local governments in southernIraq.
Revoking the ceasefire would be a setback for Iraq, theInternational Crisis Group think tank said in a recent report.
"This would not only a resumption of sectarian killings,but also an escalation in the fratricidal war between rivalShi'ite militias," it said.
Biddle said he believed Sadr was observing the trucebecause of increased U.S. troop levels and a move by some SunniArab insurgents to stop fighting.
"The combination of Sunni ceasefires, the U.S. surge andthe misbehaviour of his own militia boxed him into a situationwhere continued warfare was unattractive," Biddle said.
(Additional reporting by Khaled Farhan in Najaf; Editing bySamia Nakhoul)
