By Simon Cameron-Moore
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistanis will brave the risk ofbomb attacks to vote in an election on Monday that could returna parliament set on driving U.S. ally President PervezMusharraf out of power.
The election should have happened last month, but theassassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto after apolitical rally in Rawalpindi on December 27 forced a delay.
The death of Bhutto, the most progressive, Western-friendlypolitician in a Muslim nation rife with anti-Americansentiment, heightened concerns about stability in thenuclear-armed state, and the vote is being keenly watched byallies and neighbours.
There is a security scare in large parts of Pakistan, whereMusharraf has ruled since coming to power as a general in acoup in 1999, and a suicide attack on supporters of Bhutto'sparty killed 47 people in a town near the Afghan border onSaturday.
"We are confused. We don't have good leaders and we don'tknow where our country is going," said Isa, a lecturer at astate-run college in Islamabad, reflecting despair felt by manyof the 160 million people in a country that has alternatedbetween civilian and army rule throughout its 60-year history.
Well over 450 people have died in militant-related violencethis year alone, and fear could lead to a low turnout thatwould probably help Musharraf's allies.
More than 80,000 troops will back up police on Monday tostop violence.
The other worry is rigging, which could prompt oppositionparties to reject the result and call for street protests,raising concern over how the Pakistan army would react.
Otherwise, a sympathy wave is expected to help Bhutto'sPakistan People's Party emerge as the largest party in the 342National Assembly.
Polls open at 8 a.m. (0300 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. (1200).Results are expected to start emerging towards midnight andtrends should be clear late on Tuesday morning.
Most analysts doubt PPP can get a majority. Who it choosesfor coalition partners will be vital to Musharraf's future.
"We will try and take all friends and foes together,"Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari and de facto leader of thePPP said in a speech on the eve of the vote.
Western allies, who want a stable Pakistan focused onfighting al Qaeda and the Taliban, are hoping moderate forceswill prevail.
Investors in a stock market that rose 40 percent last year,and has shed six percent since Bhutto's death, feel the same.
BLAMED FOR ALMOST EVERYTHING
If PPP does come out on top its choice of principalcoalition partner lies between the pro-Musharraf PakistanMuslim League or the party of Nawaz Sharif, the prime ministerMusharraf ousted.
An alliance between the PPP and Sharif's Pakistan MuslimLeague (Nawaz), better known as the PML-N or Nawaz League, iswhat Musharraf dreads as Sharif is intent on bringing him down.
There were two shooting incidents outside election officesof Sharif's party in Lahore on Sunday, three men were killed,including a candidate for the provincial assembly.
Musharraf's critics say his efforts to retain power havebecome a source of instability.
Many people disbelieve the government's assertion thatBhutto was killed by a suicide team sent by a Pakistani Talibanleader with links to al Qaeda, and suspect shadowy members ofthe conservative establishment were behind the assassination.
Musharraf has not been forgiven for imposing emergency rulefor six weeks in November to sack judges who might have blockedhis re-election for a second term by the outgoing assemblies.
Though the vote is not a presidential poll, Musharraf'sunpopularity is expected to play a big part in determining themake-up of the National Assembly and four provincialassemblies.
Pakistanis are angry with Musharraf for many reasons, andhe is more vulnerable after quitting as army chief in November.
He is blamed for everything from rising food and fuelprices, to the insecurity resulting from fighting a war againstmilitants that many Pakistanis think is America's, not theirs.
"I haven't seen such a situation in my life, when prices ofall goods have shot up," said Sheikh Mohammed, a white-beardedman selling fruit from a roadside stall in Lahore, the capitalof Punjab province. "Then there's the law and order situation."
(To read more about the Pakistan election double click on;and visit the Reuters blog "Pakistan: Now or Never?" athttp://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/)
(Additional reporting by Jon Hemming and Kamran Haider;Editing by Dominic Evans)
