By Sam Cage
SOFIA (Reuters) - Ruling party candidate Rosen Plevneliev is set to lead in the first round of Bulgaria's presidential election Sunday, but will probably need a run-off to secure the position after a campaign marred by protests and violence.
It will tighten the centre-right GERB's grip on power in the European Union's poorest country, though polls show its popularity has slid to about 30 percent, from some 40 percent when it took power in 2009.
Rallies against the Roma minority and corruption rocked Bulgaria's cities last month and a bomb last week blew up the car of a popular journalist, highlighting GERB Prime Minister Boiko Borisov's struggle to address unemployment, graft and the fragile position of ethnic minorities.
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is monitoring the election as there are some concerns over vote buying given Bulgaria's ranking as the EU's second most corrupt country.
The first indication of the results will be exit polls at about 17:00 British time and official results are expected Monday morning. Local elections will also be held Sunday.
While the presidential role is largely ceremonial, a Plevneliev win -- replacing the current incumbent, Socialist Georgi Parvanov -- would remove potential for a high-profile dissenting voice and the threat of vetoing legislation.
Borisov has so far failed to make the promised and much-needed reforms of healthcare, labour and public administration and analysts say he is unlikely to change tack, even with Plevneliev alongside, before 2013 general elections.
"A victory for Plevneliev will place GERB in a commanding position ahead of the legislative election scheduled for 2013," said James Goundry, an analyst at consultancy IHS Europe.
Rather than pushing potentially unpopular reforms, Borisov is more likely to focus on sustaining tight fiscal discipline, which wins praise abroad but does little to improve the lot of Bulgarians, who have an average wage of 350 euros a month.
"Although nominally independent, Plevneliev is acknowledged as part of the GERB faithful and is likely to promote the deficit-reduction policies of Borisov's government at every opportunity," Goundry said.
Any unhappiness with GERB has so far not translated into support for the nationalist Attack party, which came second in the 2006 presidential race, but is now languishing on just 4 percent in polls.
They show Plevneliev will probably need a second round to gain more than 50 percent of the vote and his most likely opponent is Socialist candidate Ivailo Kalfin, a former foreign minister.
Former EU Commissioner Meglena Kuneva, an independent who is expected to gain support from voters dissatisfied with the political establishment, is in third place.
(Editing by Rosalind Russell)
