By Erik Kirschbaum
BERLIN (Reuters) - Angela Merkel's conservatives tried on Monday to move on quickly from a landslide defeat in a state election in Hamburg but it could reverberate in six more votes this year and in her response to the euro zone crisis.
Merkel's Christian Democrats were swept from power in Germany's second city in the regional election on Sunday with their worst result since World War Two, plunging 20.7 percentage points from the last election there to 21.9 percent of the vote.
The rout could also limit the chancellor's room to manoeuvre in the euro zone debt crisis, where she has demanded economic policy coordination along German lines. Domestic pressure against paying euro zone bills will rise, analysts said.
"The loss in Hamburg was far worse than anyone had expected," said Dietmar Herz, political scientist at Erfurt University. "Merkel will likely take a tougher line defending Germany's interests to mollify her conservative supporters."
The chancellor faced widespread criticism in Germany last year for providing guarantees, backed by taxpayers, for rescue packages for Greece and the wider euro zone. This was also part of the reason she lost control of the upper house, or Bundesrat, by failing to hold North Rhine-Westphalia state in an election last May.
Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer said the Hamburg defeat would most likely not have any direct effect on Germany's negotiating position on a revamped euro rescue package to be launched in March because it was mostly about local issues in Hamburg.
But that could change if her CDU is also beaten next month in the more influential state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, where the conservatives have been in power for six decades, he said.
"Every German politician has the sensitivities of voters about the euro zone in the back of their minds," Kraemer said. "But Hamburg will not have a big effect because it was about local issues. In Baden-Wuerttemberg, they know the public is already sceptical about help for periphery euro states."
ONE DOWN, SIX TO GO
While the CDU had expected to lose Hamburg and its three seats in the 69-seat Bundesrat, the dimensions of the defeat in Germany's richest city were stunning and could cause turbulence ahead of elections in three states in March.
The opposition Social Democrats took back control of Hamburg with 48.3 percent of the vote, compared with 34.1 percent in the 2008 election. That gives them 62 seats and an absolute majority in the 121-seat state assembly -- their best result in 17 years.
Merkel's weaker position in the Bundesrat, which represents Germany's states, will make it harder for her centre-right coalition to pass legislation. About half the laws that pass the lower house also need upper house approval.
Hamburg was the 17th consecutive regional election in which the conservatives' tally declined from the previous vote -- a frightening tailspin that raises nervousness among party officials alarmed about their diminishing job security.
"Merkel will be not able to just sweep Hamburg under the carpet and move on," said Gero Neugebauer, political scientist at Berlin's Free University. "It definitely will have national implications, sending signals for other elections this year.
"The size of the defeat in Hamburg gave Merkel a glimpse of the abyss that she may be staring into at the end of 2011," he added. "If things go badly, she could lose the next six votes and that would make it almost impossible for her to continue."
In 2005, her predecessor Gerhard Schroeder called early elections after his SPD, which had been in a minority in the Bundesrat since 1999, lost a string of state elections that further eroded its position in the upper house.
Merkel is suddenly facing other woes. Her popular Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg has been embroiled in a plagiarism scandal over his academic thesis, allegations he has dismissed. Rumours that he will resign have swept Berlin.
Merkel's coalition now has 31 of the 69 seats in the upper house after losing Hamburg. There are 24 more Bundesrat seats up for grabs in the next six elections and Merkel's coalition could in a worst-case scenario lose 13 more seats this year.
"We're facing turbulent months politically if the SPD can take the momentum from Hamburg into other states," wrote Bild newspaper columnist Rolf Kleine. "This election win is like a storm flood. The SPD that was in such disarray in 2009 is back."
The CDU got crushed because its candidate Christoph Ahlhaus was unpopular and ran a poor campaign. The SPD challenger, ex-Labour Minister Olaf Scholz, won back traditional SPD voters and moderates by focussing on the economy and debt reduction.
The CDU tried to portray Hamburg, where Merkel was born, as a one-off.
"It was mainly about local issues in Hamburg," said Hermann Groehe, CDU general secretary and Merkel's party deputy. "We've got strong chances in other state elections next month."
The SPD hope the Hamburg outcome will send a signal to voters before the other state votes, especially in Baden-Wuerttemberg.
(Editing by Mark Trevelyan)
