WARSAW (Reuters) - Bronislaw Komorowski, candidate of Poland's ruling economically liberal Civic Platform (PO) party, beat his main rival, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, in the first round of a presidential election on Sunday.
Exit polls showed between 41 and 46 percent of Poles voted in favour of Komorowski, the speaker of the lower house of parliament, and about 36 percent for Kaczynski, leader of the right-wing main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS).
The other eight candidates trailed far behind and are now eliminated, leaving Komorowski and Kaczynski to face off in a second, decisive round of voting on July 4.
Economists and political analysts say Komorowski's lead would be welcomed by financial markets because he is expected to work smoothly with Prime Minister Donald Tusk's pro-business, pro-euro government.
Kaczynski is the twin brother of President Lech Kaczynski, who died in a plane crash in Russia in April along with many members of Poland's political and military elite. Lech Kaczynski had tried to block some of Tusk's reforms.
Here are some comments of economists and political analysts about Sunday's election result.
ALEKSANDER SMOLAR, POLITICAL ANALYST AT STEFAN BATORY FOUNDATION
"If the final difference between the two top candidates is 12 percent, then, despite summer holidays and other circumstances, it will be practically impossible to change in the second round. If the difference is 5 percent, then the element of uncertainty is much greater.
"In the second round, the fight between Komorowski and Kaczynski will be waged over the leftist electorate."
IWONA JAKUBOWSKA-BRANICKA, SOCIOLOGIST, UNIVERSITY OF WARSAW
"I feared that Komorowski's results would be worse, so I'm surprised by his strong showing. The turnout will be key in the second round. It will determine the winner.
"PiS has an iron electorate, while PO's is less determined and could ignore the second round. If that is the case, it is possible for Kaczynski to win.
"Theoretically, Napieralski supporters should back Komorowski. These are mainly younger Poles."
JACEK RACIBORSKI, WARSAW UNIVERSITY
"Both candidates achieved high results and Kaczynski's dramatically grew after the Smolensk (plane) disaster. The turnout (in the second round of voting) will be a key factor. Komorowski cannot let his guard down because Kaczynski's support is iron-clad. Komorowski's support is less stable."
PAWEL SWIEBODA, HEAD OF DEMOS EUROPA THINK TANK
"Now we shall see a real campaign, which we did not really see before the first round because each candidate feared harming his chances."
"Grzegorz Napieralski is an obvious ally for Komorowski and the SLD electorate should vote for Komorowski. But, of course, it's not certain that the entire 13 percent (won by Napieralski) will be transferred for Komorowski. He'll have to put some effort into it."
LARS CHRISTENSEN, SENIOR ANALYST AT DANSKE BANK:
"Yes, the elections are important in terms of political risks. That said, I think most investors expect Komorrowski will win in the end and this, I think, is more or less priced in. However, the fact that we are going to a second round of voting could create a bit of uncertainty."
"Komorowski won (the first round), so market reaction will undoubtedly be positive as it will be seen reducing political risks. The zloty should strengthen."
KRZYSZTOF BOBINSKI, HEAD OF UNIA & POLSKA THINK-TANK
"Komorowski, to feel secure, had to have a 10 percent lead, and this is what most polls show. But he has to consider the fact that some of his electorate will take off for the holidays in the second round and Kaczynski's will be mobilised.
"There is still a lot of uncertainty ahead and we'll see what happens in the debate."
RAFAL BENECKI, SENIOR ECONOMIST AT ING BANK:
"Should Bronislaw Komorowski (Civic Platform) now win the second round of elections, and I assume he can, the government will no longer be able to blame the presidential veto as the main obstacle to launching fiscal consolidation."
"Despite that, we do not expect major moves on the spending side, such as cuts in transfers on farmers' social security (KRUS) or an increase in the retirement age, due to the 2011 parliamentary election and the Peasants' Party (PSL) (as junior partner) in the coalition."
"The likely course of fiscal policy is slowing the growth of spending (unfortunately the new spending rule applies only to 1/3 of total budget outlays) amid a cyclical improvement of revenues. The risk scenario is weaker growth, which may potentially push public debt above the second safety threshold (55 percent of GDP), but (fortunately) that will activate fiscal procedures which forces the government to actual spending cuts."
MARCIN MROZ, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT FORTIS BANK IN WARSAW:
"For quite some time now, markets have been completely ignoring domestic news or events and just blindly following core markets. This attitude was reflected very well when Marek Belka was appointed as the new central bank governor - an event that went largely unnoticed by markets even though it concerned a key person in Poland's economic policy."
"So in my view, there will be no market reaction to the election results."
"We have been on the sidelines of global events in recent times, so for as long as we won't do something stupid in our economy, investors won't pay much attention."
(Compiled by Karolina Slowikowska and Filip Kochan)
