By Yuri Kulikov and Natalya Zinets
KIEV (Reuters) - Once-disgraced opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich led Ukraine's presidential election on Sunday but fell well short of a majority and will face Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in a run-off, according to exit polls.
Both sides immediately said they were poised for victory in the February 7 run-off but Tymoshenko's stronger-than-expected showing led some commentators to tip her as the favourite.
The National Exit Poll Consortium said Yanukovich, 59, a rough-hewn ex-premier with close ties to Ukraine's Russian- speaking east, scored 31.5 percent against 27.2 percent for Tymoshenko.
The election will help decide the shape of Ukraine's relations with Europe and Russia, and a decisive result could help unblock IMF aid for the ailing economy. Funds were frozen because of incessant bickering in Ukraine' political elite.
Tymoshenko is one of the architects of the country's pro-Western Orange Revolution, while Yanukovich has called for a strong, independent Ukraine following a neutral path and not joining NATO or any other bloc.
A second exit poll, conducted for Ukraine's ICTV television, gave Yanukovich 35.1 percent and Tymoshenko 25.7 percent. First official results were expected later on Sunday evening.
"If these results reflect reality, then Tymoshenko has a very good chance of winning in the second round," said independent analyst Oleksander Dergachev.
"Yanukovich came close to the maximum level of support for him and he could have never exceeded 40 percent."
Yanukovich ally Mykola Azarov said Yanukovich had a "100 per cent" chance of victory next month while Tymoshenko ally and deputy prime minister Oleksander Turchynov said Tymoshenko would be Ukraine's next president.
Widespread disenchantment with politics and anger over a deep economic crisis marked the vote in the former Soviet republic of 46 million people wedged between Poland and Russia.
Tymoshenko, a sharp-tongued populist who amassed a large fortune during her years in the gas industry, had raised fears before the vote of fraud.
The Central Election Commission (CEC) said that it had received reports of minor irregularities but these would not have a significant impact on the result.
"Naturally there are individual irregularities. How could it be otherwise. But they are not massive," CEC secretary Tatiana Lukash told a briefing, Interfax news agency reported.
YUSCHENKO PUNISHED
Voters punished incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, one of the architects of the pro-Western Orange Revolution against Yanukovich's rigged election victory in 2004.
The Western-funded National Exit Poll Consortium gave him just 6 percent, meaning he has no hope of reaching the second round.
Yanukovich, a towering, barrel-chested former mechanic, will instead face Tymoshenko. The third-placed candidate, former central bank head Sergey Tigipko, has not yet said whom he will support.
Yanukovich's Party of the Regions is allied to the Kremlin's United Russia party but Yanukovich has been careful to avoid appearing as Moscow's stooge.
Tymoshenko, famous for her trademark blonde hair braid, ran a populist campaign portraying herself as the only possible saviour for a country which was teetering on a "razor-sharp edge of choice" and could tip into the abyss.
Many voters are disillusioned with all political leaders after two parliamentary polls, four governments and bitter arguing over the past five years -- not what they hoped for when the Orange Revolution swept away a discredited pro-Moscow government.
"This is total nonsense. Nothing will change after the election -- they are all identical," said Mykola, a 55-year-old wrapped up warmly on a snowy Kiev street, who did not vote.
(Additional reporting by Pavel Polityuk and by Lina Kush in Donetsk; writing by Richard Balmforth, Michael Stott, Sabina Zawadzki and Dmitry Solovyov, editing by Dominic Evans)
