Border stability to top China-Myanmar talks

BEIJING/YANGON (Reuters) - Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping arrives this week in Myanmar where he is expected to meet the regime's reclusive top leader and press for assurances there will be no more unrest on their shared border.

The military-ruled former Burma has few foreign friends due to its human rights record and detention of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi ahead of an election next year. That gives extra significance to a visit by Xi, seen as a frontrunner to succeed President Hu Jintao.

China is one of Myanmar's rare diplomatic backers, often coming to the rescue when it is pressed by Western governments over issues such as the 2007 crackdown on pro-democracy protests led by Buddhist monks.

But relations have been strained of late.

In August, Myanmar's army overran Kokang, which lies along the border with the southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan and was controlled for years by an ethnic Chinese militia. The action pushed thousands of refugees into China and angering Beijing.

A second, 20,000-strong ethnic Chinese militia, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), denounced as a narcotics cartel by the United States, has refused to disarm and is preparing for an imminent attack by the Myanmar army, activists and local media say.

"If there was renewed fighting with some of the other groups, the potential refugee flows would be much greater," said David Mathieson, Myanmar researcher for New York-based Human Rights Watch.

"I think they would also be concerned about increased drug shipments coming from that part of Burma into China, because a lot of these groups have just been liquidating their inventory to try and get money to prepare for fighting, and some of it does go through China."

RARE MEETING WITH TOP GENERAL

China's Foreign Ministry has given few details of the visit set for Saturday and Sunday. But a Myanmar government official told Reuters that Xi was scheduled to meet General Than Shwe, the leader of the junta, who rarely receives foreign dignitaries.

Problems along the border, where Myanmar is trying to coax ethnic militias to end decades of fighting and form a border guard force under government jurisdiction, will likely top issues to be discussed with Xi as will next year's election.

"Matters concerning the transformation of ethnic armed groups like the UWSA and the upcoming elections could be on the top the agenda," the official said on condition of anonymity.

The election, already roundly dismissed by rights activists as a sham, are the last stop on Myanmar's "road map" to democracy, but it remains unclear what civilian rule would look like after almost 50 years of army-led government.

The visit will also give Xi a chance to get to know the leaders of a country which China sees as a vital strategic partner ahead of his own expected ascendancy to the presidency.

"He is expected to succeed President Hu in 2012 and I think the upcoming visit of his to Myanmar is very important for cementing existing ties," one Yangon-based Asian diplomat told Reuters.

The neighbours have significant business ties. Bilateral trade grew more than one-quarter last year to about $2.63 billion.

In late October, China's CNPC started building a crude oil port in Myanmar, part of a pipeline project aimed at cutting out the long detour oil cargoes take through the congested and strategically vulnerable Malacca Strait.

China's overriding concern is a stable Myanmar to give its landlocked southwestern provinces access to the Indian Ocean as well as natural resources like oil, gas and timber.

"The way political reform is going in Burma does suit China's interests, because basically it's going to be a civilian-front parliament for continued military rule," said Mathieson. (Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Ron Popeski)

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