BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romanians vote for a president on Sunday in a ballot expected to unseat incumbent Traian Basescu in favour of a leftist who says he will end a political crisis that has put an IMF-led rescue package at risk.
Challenger Mircea Geoana has an eight-point lead in opinion polls. He is supported by many voters frustrated by clashes over the president's drive to clean up a political class steeped in murky deals and corruption.
The winner will be able to name a new prime minister after Geoana's Social Democrats and other opposition parties downed a Basescu-allied cabinet in October.
He must also address reforms prescribed by the International Monetary Fund, part of a 20 billion euro aid package the fund has put on hold until a new government and a 2010 budget emerge.
Basescu, 58, has said the recommendations, including up to 150,000 public job cuts, are key for the European Union newcomer to climb out of one of the bloc's deepest economic contractions.
He has also said Geoana's ex-communist party will turn a blind eye to the corruption which has plagued Romanians since they overthrew one of the communist era's most repressive regimes and executed dictator Nicolae Ceausescu 20 years ago this month.
"Romania is a huge ship with a crew of 22 million and a commander that will take it out of the economic storm and into a safe port," Basescu told thousands at a rally on Friday, playing on his former career as a ship's captain.
Although the president holds little legal power technically, Basescu has used the post to sway over policy.
The victor will have three election-free years to influence long-delayed steps that could decide whether the country of 22 million can resume its convergence race with the richer West.
ECONOMIC WORRY
A former envoy to Washington, the 51-year-old Geoana has criticised Basescu for polarising politics and indicated he will resist the job cut proposal, which has angered the leftist's base and caused a strike by 800,000 state workers in October.
Romania is the EU's second poorest state, ahead of neighbour Bulgaria. Although its economy doubled from 2004-2008, the boom hit a wall last year and purchasing power per capita has stalled at 46 percent of the EU's average.
"All politicians do is fight instead of taking care of us," said Liviu Gradinescu, a 46-year-old accountant. "I don't like Geoana very much, but at least the scandals will be over if Basescu doesn't win."
The future cabinet must cut the budget gap to 5.9 percent of gross domestic product next year, versus 7.3 percent this year, for the IMF to release the next 1.5 billion euro loan.
Key to that will be overhauling the public sector. With 1.3 million workers, it accounts for a third of all Romanian jobs and has a murky bonus system that often rewards a select elite.
Geoana, who has been praised for his negotiation skills as a diplomat, has agreed with the Liberals to name provincial mayor Klaus Johannis as prime minister if he wins.
Analysts say the two parties may struggle to agree on how to meet the IMF's terms, and delay would hurt the leu currency, which is down 4.7 percent versus the euro this year.
"The probability that the coalition of actually getting the IMF loan by late January is fairly slim," said Raffaella Tenconi, chief economist at Wood & Co.
And while Basescu tried to probe suspected corrupt "big fish" officials, the Social Democrats blocked cases, such as an inquiry into the wealth of former prime minister Adrian Nastase.
Analysts say anti-graft reforms are more likely to stop if Geoana wins, a problem for a country ranked last in the EU by Transparency International.
"I don't care about corruption any more," said Antonel Mocanu, a 29-year-old security guard. "All I want is to have a place to work so I can start a family."
(Reporting by Michael Winfrey; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
