By Anna Mudeva
SOFIA (Reuters) - Bulgarians elect a new parliament on Sunday that will have to tackle endemic corruption and an economy hit hard by the global downturn, with opinion polls pointing to a defeat for the ruling Socialist led coalition.
Last year Bulgaria, an European Union member since 2007 and the bloc's poorest country, lost access to millions of euros in aid in punishment for failing to deal with graft.
More EU sanctions may be applied if Brussels judges Sofia has not done enough to reform the judiciary and restore the rule of law, analysts say.
Days ahead of the election several suspected criminals awaiting trial registered to run for parliament to obtain release from custody.
The centre-right opposition GERB of Sofia mayor Boiko Borisov, which has campaigned hard on promises to jail corrupt officials and organised crime bosses, looks set to win most votes, about 30 percent against the Socialists on about 20 percent, but not an outright majority.
More than two-thirds of Bulgaria's electorate want the coalition led by the Socialists, the reformed communist party, out of office over the graft issues and because they feel not enough has been done to prop up the economy.
However, if no party wins an outright majority, coalition talks may dilute any reform drive, observers warn.
"I'm totally fed up with those in power," said Milka Stoyanova, a 53-year-old beautician from Sofia.
"It's hard to believe that GERB will change things radically but still there will be some change and I will vote for them."
Bulgaria has entered recession after 12 years of growth and the next government to govern this Balkan nation of 7.6 million people must also act quickly to slash public spending. Economists say a slide into deficit could force Bulgaria to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund.
"The next government will have to take full responsibility to push ahead with painful reforms," said Kiril Avramov of the Political Capital think-tank.
SUSPECTED CRIMINALS
The German Ambassador to Sofia, Michael Geier, was quoted by local media as saying that Berlin was now more concerned about the suspected criminals' participation in the election than corruption and fraud in using EU funds.
Prosecutors have also launched several investigations into widespread allegations of vote-buying by virtually all parties.
Observers say resentment towards the political elite and a climate of impunity since communism collapsed in 1989 meant Bulgarians will likely elect a fragmented parliament that will struggle for a unified response towards crime.
If it wins the ballot, Borisov's GERB is likely to seek a partnership with right-wing parties grouped as the Blue Coalition, but they could still fall short of a majority needed to govern effectively.
"A centre-right government would have a bigger legitimacy and public support to implement reforms ... But the big question is whether such a government could be formed," said Boriana Dimitrova of Alpha Research, independent polling agency.
(Editing by Justyna Pawlak and Matthew Jones)
