By Darren Schuettler
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand feared a spike in violence inits Muslim deep south on Friday after an unknown rebel groupannounced a "ceasefire" dismissed by some analysts as a hoaxthat might enrage real fighters on the ground.
The surprise announcement by the so-called Thailand UnitedSouthern Underground on Thursday was rubbished by securityexperts and ex-army commanders who said its leaders had noinfluence in the region, where more than 3,000 people have beenkilled since 2004.
"It's a hoax and it could make matters much worse," SunaiPhasuk of Human Rights Watch told Reuters.
"People in the south are angry and depressed. They expectthere will be more attacks because local rebel commanders willtake it as an insult to their struggle," he said.
Former army officers in the region said the "ceasefire",which an ex-defence minister said he had negotiated with 11insurgent groups, expressed similar fears.
"Active groups may intensify their attacks on troops andcivilians to show that they don't listen to this group," KittiRattanachaya, a former southern army commander, told Thai TV.
The shadowy rebels have never revealed themselves publiclyor claimed responsibility for the near daily bomb and gunattacks in the major rubber-producing region borderingMalaysia.
Three hours after Thursday's broadcast, rebels wounded onesoldier in an ambush on an army patrol in Yala, one of threesouthernmost provinces where Malay Muslims make up the majorityof the population.
"We won't let our guard down because of that ceasefireclaim," army spokesman Colonel Acra Tiproch said of the 30,000soldiers and police fighting the low-level insurgency.
"We will continue our pro-active, offensive operations --search and destroy and arrest -- for peace in the south."
"DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH"
Army chief General Anupong Paochinda, who said he wasunaware of the ceasefire before it was broadcast on army TV,identified the group's leader as Malipeng Khan, a separatistactive in the 1980s who had failed to unify insurgent factions.
Separatist rebels waged a low-level guerrilla war in thedensely forested region throughout the 1970s and 1980s, buttheir campaign petered out in the 1990s after an amnesty offer.
That struggle was dominated by groups such as the PattaniUnited Liberation Organisation (PULO), which has been largelydormant since the 1980s, with some of its leaders now livingabroad.
The old guard has been replaced by a new generation ofrebel leaders and groups such as the Barisan Revolusi NasionalCoordinasi, which analysts say is most responsible for thecurrent violence.
"Don't hold your breath. This is not the real deal," U.S.professor and security expert Zachary Abuza wrote on a blog.
"Members of PULO have attempted to speak on behalf of theinsurgents and negotiate with the government in the past. Thishas always led to a spike in violence and attacks on theprevious generation of militants."
Thailand's Nation newspaper, which published a storyheadlined "Hope or Hoax", quoted a PULO official as saying theyknew nothing of the men who announced the ceasefire.
Bangkok has flirted with talks with separatist groups inthe past, but most analysts said it was illogical for theinsurgents to agree to an unconditional ceasefire. They are notseriously under pressure from Thai security forces, which havestruggled to find a strategy to stop the violence.
Thaksin's flip-flopping between heavy-handed crackdowns andoffers of millions of dollars in development aid to one ofThailand's poorest regions did not bring calm, either.
After Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup, then PrimeMinister Surayud Chulanont apologised for Thaksin's iron-fistapproach, but his "hearts and minds" campaign failed to stopthe bloodshed.
Last year was the bloodiest in the far south since theinsurgency began, with nearly 800 people killed.
(Additional reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat and NoppornWong-Anan; Editing by David Fogarty)
