By Darren Schuettler
BANGKOK (Reuters) - A group claiming to be the leaders of afour-year-old separatist insurgency in Thailand's Muslim southsaid on Thursday they had agreed to a ceasefire, but analystswere very sceptical.
"All our fighting groups, both military and politicalgroups, will support peace in the south from now on," aspokesman for the unnamed umbrella group said in a statementbroadcast on army TV.
If true, it would be the first time the shadowy rebels haveclaimed responsibility for the near daily bomb and gun attacksthat have killed more than 3,000 people and hit rubberproduction in the predominately Muslim provinces borderingMalaysia.
Chettha Thanajaro, a former army commander-in-chief anddefence minister, said he had negotiated privately with 11rebel groups since last year.
"They need to keep their word. If there is no violence inthe next week, then the government will get involved and starttalking to them more," he said.
The government of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej shedlittle light on Chettha's statement.
"The Prime Minister still hasn't got a report on this,"deputy government spokesman Nuttawut Saikua said.
Chettha did not name the umbrella group or the two rebelswho appeared on television, clad in khaki vests and short andthe round caps worn by Muslim men, against the backdrop of ablue, white and yellow flag.
Analysts were very sceptical of the announcement.
"Everyone is extremely suspicious and it seems as if it maybe a hoax of some sort. No one seems to recognise the flageither," an analyst at a Bangkok-based security firm said.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political analyst and securityexpert at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, was alsocautious.
"In the past, it (the government) has met people claimingto represent insurgents in the region, but the violence neverstops," he said.
BLOODY HISTORY
Three hours after the broadcast, rebels wounded one soldierin an ambush on an army patrol in Yala, one of threesouthernmost provinces home to most of Thailand's 6 millionMuslims.
The deep south, home to an independent sultanate annexed bypredominantly Buddhist Thailand a century ago, has resistedefforts by various military governments in the 1950s and 1960sto import Thai language, culture and religion.
The region accounts for 10 percent of rubber output fromThailand, the world's top producer.
Separatist rebels waged a low-level guerrilla war in thedensely forested region throughout the 1970s and 1980s, buttheir campaign petered out in the 1990s under a moreconciliatory, democratic government in Bangkok.
However, violence flared anew in 2004 shortly after thenPrime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a former policeman,dismantled an army-run organisation that included civilians andMuslim religious leaders, and put police in charge of security.
Thaksin flooded the region with 30,000 troops and police,but it further alienated the population, especially after 78Muslim men arrested after a protest died of suffocation in armycustody.
After Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup, Prime MinisterSurayud Chulanont apologised for the heavy-handed response, buthis "hearts and minds" campaign failed to stop the bloodshed.
Last year was the bloodiest in the far south since theinsurgency began, with nearly 800 people killed.
(Additional reporting by Ploy Chitsomboon and NoppornWong-Anan; Editing by Alex Richardson)
