By Robert Birsel
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistani President PervezMusharraf's opponents headed for election victory on Tuesdayafter voters rejected his former ruling party, raisingquestions about the future of the U.S. ally who has ruled since1999.
No party is expected to win a majority in the 342-seatNational Assembly but the opposition parties of assassinatedformer prime minister Benazir Bhutto and another former primeminister, Nawaz Sharif, were set to be the biggest.
Whichever is bigger will be best placed to lead acoalition.
As president, former army chief Musharraf did not contestMonday's elections, aimed at completing a transition tocivilian rule, but the outcome could seal his fate.
A hostile parliament could try to remove Musharraf, whotook power as a general in a 1999 coup and emerged as a crucialU.S. ally in a "war on terror" that most Pakistanis think isWashington's, not theirs.
The election was relatively peaceful after a bloodycampaign and opposition fears of rampant rigging by Musharraf'ssupporters appeared unfounded.
The vote was postponed from January 8 after Bhutto wasassassinated in a suicide attack on December 27, which raisedconcern about the nuclear-armed country's stability.
Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has been expected toreap a sympathy vote and was doing well, partial resultsshowed.
But unofficial Election Commission tallies showed Sharif'sparty leading in Punjab province where half the members ofparliament will be elected.
As results came in showing prominent members of thepro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML) losing seats,analysts weighed the implications for a president whosepopularity has slumped over the past year.
"It's the moment of truth for the president," said AbbasNasir, editor of the Dawn newspaper.
"There will be thoughts swirling in his mind, whether hecan forge a working relationship with two parties whoseleadership he kept out of the country."
Bhutto spent eight years in self-exile to avoid corruptioncharges she denied. Sharif was exiled a year after Musharrafousted him in 1999. Both returned late last year.
Sharif was barred from the election because of pastcriminal convictions he says were politically motivated.
At 0415 GMT, according to unofficial results from 180seats, Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) had won 58, thePPP 56 and the PML 21. Small parties and independents sharedthe others.
Full unofficial election results are due later on Tuesday.
"ANTI-MUSHARRAF VOTE"
Despite a mixed record as prime minister, when he clashedwith the judiciary, Sharif's defiance of old foe Musharraf andsupport for the judges he purged appeared to have paid off.
A victory for Sharif, who Musharraf ousted in 1999, wouldbe a disaster for Musharraf. Sharif has repeatedly called forMusharraf's removal and analysts say Musharraf wants acoalition between the PPP and the PML.
Some analysts said the decisive factor in the PML's defeatwas Musharraf, who angered many Pakistanis when he imposed sixweeks of emergency rule and purged the judiciary, andresentment over inflation, food shortages and power cuts.
PML president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, a former primeminister, lost his seat in Punjab to a Bhutto party candidate,television networks said. Several other top PML members,including ministers in the outgoing government, also lostseats.
Groups of opposition supporters celebrated in the streetsof Lahore, Rawalpindi and Karachi as results trickled out.
Musharraf said on Monday he would work with whoever won tobuild democracy in a country that has alternated betweencivilian and army rule throughout its 60-year history:"Everyone should accept the results, that includes myself," hesaid.
Fear appeared to have kept many people from the polls,despite 80,000 troops backing up police, although a pollwatchdog group said initial estimates suggested turnout ofnearly 42 percent, almost matching that in the last election in2002.
A suicide bomb campaign waged by al Qaeda-inspiredmilitants has added to a mounting sense of insecurity. Morethan 450 people have been killed in militant-related violencethis year, many in the northwest where religious parties faredpoorly.
Election-day violence, though bad in places, was not assevere as many had feared. Twenty people were killed, including15 PPP activists, Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari said.
The poll watchdog group said there had been a few incidentsof polling irregularities.
Western allies hope for a stable Pakistan focused onfighting militancy, as do investors in a stock market that rose40 percent last year but has shed about 3 percent sinceBhutto's death.
(To read more about the Pakistan election visit the Reutersblog "Pakistan: Now or Never?" athttp://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/)
(Additional reporting by Zeeshan Haider, Kamran Haider andJon Hemming in Lahore, Faisal Aziz and Sahar Ahmed in Karachiand Simon Gardner in Larkana; Editing by David Fox)
