By Zeeshan Haider
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - The party that backs PakistaniPresident Pervez Musharraf was headed for defeat on Tuesdayafter voters rallied to the opposition, raising questions aboutthe future of the U.S. ally who has ruled since 1999.
As president, former army chief Musharraf did not contestMonday's parliamentary elections aimed at completing atransition to civilian rule, but the outcome could seal hisfate.
A hostile parliament could try to remove Musharraf, whotook power as a general in a 1999 coup and emerged as a crucialU.S. ally in a "war on terror" that most Pakistanis think isWashington's, not theirs.
The election was relatively peaceful after a bloodycampaign and opposition fears of rampant rigging by Musharraf'ssupporters appeared unfounded.
The vote was postponed from January 8 after theassassination of former prime minister and opposition leaderBenazir Bhutto in a suicide attack on December 27, which raisedconcern about the stability of the nuclear-armed country.
Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has been expected toreap a sympathy vote and was doing well, early results showed.
But unofficial Election Commission tallies showed the othermain opposition party, led by former prime minister NawazSharif, leading in Punjab province where half the members ofparliament will be elected.
Some analysts said the decisive factor in the defeat of theparty that backs Musharraf, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML),was the president.
"The PML could not save itself from Musharraf'sunpopularity," newspaper editor Mjeeb-ur-Rehman told GeoTelevision.
Musharraf's ratings have plunged over the past year,especially after he imposed six weeks of emergency rule andpurged the judiciary. Many Pakistanis also blame him and hisPML-led government for inflation, food shortages and powercuts.
PML president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, a former primeminister, was defeated in his Punjab province constituency by arival from Bhutto's party, television networks said.
Several other prominent PML members, including ministers inthe outgoing government, lost their seats.
As results trickled out, groups of opposition supporterscelebrated in the streets of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Karachi.
Full unofficial election results are due later on Tuesday.
"ACCEPT THE RESULTS"
Musharraf said on Monday he would work with whoever won tobuild democracy in a country that has alternated betweencivilian and army rule throughout its 60-year history.
"This is the voice of the nation," Musharraf said onstate-run Pakistan Television late on Monday. "Everyone shouldaccept the results, that includes myself."
No party is expected to win a majority in the 342-seatNational Assembly but either Bhutto's PPP or Sharif's PakistanMuslim League (Nawaz), or PML (N), was set to be biggest.Whichever is bigger will be best placed to lead a coalition.
A victory for Sharif, who Musharraf ousted in 1999, wouldbe a disaster for Musharraf. Sharif has repeatedly called forMusharraf's removal and analysts say Musharraf wants acoalition between the PPP and the PML.
Sharif, barred from the election because of past criminalconvictions he says were politically motivated, only returnedfrom seven years of exile in November. His defiance of old foeMusharraf appeared to have paid off.
"There's a tremendous turnaround in the fortunes of the PML(N)," newspaper editor Rashid Rehman told Dawn Television.
Fear appeared to have kept many people from the polls,despite 80,000 troops backing up police, although a pollwatchdog group said initial estimates suggested turnout ofnearly 42 percent, almost matching that in the last election in2002.
A suicide bomb campaign waged by al Qaeda-inspiredmilitants has added to a mounting sense of insecurity. Morethan 450 people have been killed in militant-related violencethis year.
Election-day violence, though bad in places, was not assevere as many had feared. Twenty people were killed, including15 PPP activists, Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari said.
The poll watchdog group said there had been a few incidentsof polling irregularities.
Western allies hope for a stable Pakistan focused onfighting militancy, as do investors in a stock market that rose40 percent last year but has shed about 3 percent sinceBhutto's death.
(To read more about the Pakistan election visit the Reutersblog "Pakistan: Now or Never?" athttp://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/)
(Additional reporting by Kamran Haider and Jon Hemming inLahore, Faisal Aziz and Sahar Ahmed in Karachi and SimonGardner in Larkana; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing bySanjeev Miglani)
