By Kwasi Kpodo
ACCRA (Reuters) - Thousands of supporters of opposition candidate John Atta Mills, shouting "Change, change," besieged Ghana's electoral commission on Tuesday as it prepared to announce the result of a close presidential run-off vote.
Local media have predicted a narrow victory for Mills, the candidate of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), over his rival Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) following Sunday's deciding vote in the West African state.
Electoral commission chief Kwadwo Afari-Gyan met party and religious leaders to appeal for calm and a planned news conference by him set for 12 p.m. British time was rescheduled for 2:45 p.m. British time.
Some banks and businesses closed, fearing violence in the wake of run-off, that followed an inconclusive first round.
Armed soldiers and police, backed by water cannon trucks and an armoured personnel carrier, kept the NDC supporters back behind barricades at the commission headquarters in Accra. The protesters demanded the commission declare Mills the winner.
Provisional results released so far by the commission, with votes counted from 200 of the country's 230 constituencies, show the NDC's Mills leading with 52.1 percent against 47.9 percent for the NPP's Akufo-Addo.
Police fired shots into the air late on Monday to disperse Mills' supporters as they mobbed the commission building.
Akufo-Addo's NPP, the ruling party of outgoing President John Kufuor, has denounced a prediction made by Ghana's leading private independent broadcaster Joy FM, which had collated certified results from polling stations, that Mills would win.
A victory for Mills and the NDC would end eight years of NPP rule under Kufuor, who is stepping down after serving two consecutive terms, the constitutional limit.
Ghana, the world's No. 2 cocoa grower, has enjoyed recent growth and stability, becoming a favourite with investors. The country, also a gold producer, will start pumping oil in 2010.
NPP Chairman Peter Mac Manu condemned the Joy FM projection as "highly speculative and premature" and said his party would challenge what it considered flawed results from some regions.
There were some reports of violence and disorder in Sunday's vote. But many are hoping Ghana's election can help salvage the battered image of constitutional democracy in Africa, tarnished by flawed elections in Kenya and Zimbabwe and military coups in Mauritania in August and in Guinea last week.
CALL FOR CALM
In a preliminary verdict on Sunday's elections, an observer mission from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS described them as "free, peaceful, transparent and credible." But it said complaints should be challenged peacefully and legally.
In a news conference on Monday, Mills predicted he would win but urged his supporters to stay calm.
Eurasia Group risk consultancy, in a briefing note by Africa analyst Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, called Mills' lead "tight but insurmountable" and predicted he would be a "narrow electoral winner without a strong governing mandate."
Analysts say the new president -- whoever he is -- will take over at a time when economic growth is expected to slow as a result of the global downturn. He will have to deal with a growing budget and current account deficit, high inflation and unemployment and falling remittance and aid levels, they say.
"The election results are extremely close and the results are likely to be decided by less than a percentage point," the domestic election observer coalition CODEO said. It called on the electoral commission to swiftly resolve any complaints.
Presidential rivals Mills and Akufo-Addo are both foreign-trained lawyers and both are 64. They have vowed to maintain the stability and growth which have made the former British Gold Coast colony a magnet for investment.
In the first round, Akufo-Addo finished with just over 49 percent, more than 1 percentage point ahead of Mills, but he failed to gain the more than 50 percent of votes needed.
Sunday's vote follows the NPP losing its majority in parliament in legislative elections on December 7.
(Writing by Pascal Fletcher)
