By Kwasi Kpodo
ACCRA (Reuters) - Opposition candidate John Atta Mills is on course to win Ghana's presidential election run-off, top independent private broadcaster Joy FM said on Monday, and provisional official results also put him ahead.
With votes officially counted from 200 of the country's 230 constituencies after Sunday's run-off, the electoral commission said National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate Mills had 52.1 percent against 47.9 percent for Nana Akufo-Addo of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).
Electoral commission chief Kwadwo Afari-Gyan scheduled a news conference for midday (1200 GMT) on Tuesday.
"Joy FM can project that Professor John Atta Mills will win the second round of the presidential election," the radio, citing certified returns from 223 of the 230 national constituencies, announced.
Ghana's electoral regulations allow the media to announce certified results from constituencies as they are collated at individual polling stations. Only the electoral commission can declare final results or the winner.
At a news conference, Mills predicted he would win the run-off, held after an inconclusive December 7 first round in the world's No. 2 cocoa grower, which will become the latest Gulf of Guinea oil producer in 2010.
"This victory will be a victory for all Ghanaians and Atta Mills, if he should be declared winner, will be a president for everybody," Mills said, urging his supporters to stay calm.
The NPP did not concede and criticised the radio prediction.
The risk consultancy Eurasia Group, in a briefing note by Africa analyst Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, called Mills's lead "tight but insurmountable" and predicted he would be a "narrow electoral winner without a strong governing mandate."
EXTREMELY CLOSE
The forecasts were made as the contenders' campaign camps threatened not to accept some results because of alleged irregularities.
"The election results are extremely close and the results are likely to be decided by less than a percentage point," the domestic election observer coalition CODEO said.
It added that, while its observers reported "many lapses" in Sunday's voting, "(they) do not fundamentally undermine the integrity of the overall process." CODEO called on the electoral commission to swiftly resolve any complaints.
Sunday's Ghana run-off took place at the end of what many see as a tough year for constitutional democracy in Africa, tarnished by flawed elections in Kenya and Zimbabwe and military coups in Mauritania in August and in Guinea in the past week.
Many had hoped that Ghana, a recent favourite with investors on a turbulent continent, can buck the trend by holding a successful election for a successor to President John Kufuor. He leaves office in January after serving two terms, the constitutional maximum.
Unlike the peaceful December 7 first round, which was widely praised by international observers but failed to produce an outright winner, election monitors reported cases of disorder, intimidation and even violence in several regions on Sunday.
Rivals Mills and Akufo-Addo are both foreign-trained lawyers and both are aged 64. They have vowed to maintain the stability and growth which have made the former British colony a magnet for investment.
In the first round, Akufo-Addo finished with just over 49 percent, more than one percentage point ahead of Mills, but he failed to gain the more than 50 percent of votes needed to win.
(For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: http://africa.reuters.com/)
(Writing by Pascal Fletcher; editing by Andrew Dobbie)
