LONDON (Reuters) - European Union industrial emissions could fall by 10 percent below 2007 levels next year, Deutsche Bank said on Thursday, unnerving traders on the possibility of another price collapse in carbon permits.
The German bank said lower productivity from companies participating in the EU's emissions trading scheme will lead to a surplus in the emissions permits traded under the scheme over the next two years.
This will depress prices for permits (EUAs) traded in the scheme's second phase (2008-12), possibly forcing a retest of the all-time low of 11.80 euros a tonne, the bank said.
"We see continuing pressure on EUA prices owing to the much lower level of emissions we are now assuming in 2009 and 2010," said Deutsche analyst Mark C. Lewis in a note, adding firms may forward sell permits they don't need next year to raise cash.
Benchmark EUAs traded as low as 14.45 euros a tonne on Friday, 50 percent below a 2-year high of 29.69 euros hit in July.
"It looks like a sequel to the phase 1 horror movie," said one emissions trader.
In the scheme's first phase (2005-07), an overallocation of permits caused the EUA price to crash, prompting critics to question the effectiveness of emissions trading as a weapon in the fight against climate change.
The difference in the scheme's second phase (2008-12), Lewis said, is that companies can carry over unused permits to the third phase, which begins in 2013, thereby avoiding the mass sell-off that pushed prices down to zero in phase I.
Lewis predicted emissions will start to rise again in 2010, growing by 11 percent over 2009 levels to 2.28 billion tonnes by 2020, and leading to an overall shortage of EUAs in the second and third phases.
"On our revised estimates the ETS is still short by an average of 50 million tonnes per year over 2008-20 even after allowing for the use of (Kyoto) credits," Lewis said.
Lewis said EU emissions will drop to 2.054 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide next year, down five percent from an estimate of 2.165 tonnes in 2008 and 10 percent below the 2.247 billion tonnes emitted last year.
Lewis did not change his EUA price forecast, estimating prices of 30 euros a tonne this year, rising by four percent annually to 48 euros in 2020.
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(Reporting by Michael Szabo; editing by James Jukwey)
