WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The arbiter of U.S. recessions is not ready to declare that one has begun and probably won't decide until well after the November presidential election, a prominent member of the recession-dating committee said on Tuesday.
Robert Hall, a Stanford University economist and chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee, said the group was waiting to examine more economic data and was "resolute" not to allow political considerations to affect its decision.
"We have been subjected to political pressure, which I'm not going to talk about," he said at an economics conference in Washington. "This has been an issue but we've stood tall on that." He did not elaborate.
Hall said the committee had "not entered the territory of even tentatively considering" pinpointing the end of the economic expansion that began in late 2001. He said the group was staying in contact via e-mail, and he would not rule out an in-person meeting on the sidelines of the American Economic Association annual conference in January.
Hall said the current stage of the business cycle was mirroring 2001, when strong productivity growth meant economic output did not drop dramatically even though companies were cutting jobs at a recessionary pace.
That made it tough for the committee to call a recession, and even tougher to time the recovery because job losses persisted long after the broader economy rebounded.
Hall said he personally thought the U.S. economy was probably in a recession, but quickly added: "That's not official. I'm saying it very quietly."
(Editing by Dan Grebler)
