By Jeff Franks
HAVANA (Reuters) - President Raul Castro will mark the 55thanniversary of the start of the Cuban revolution on Saturdaywith a speech to a nation waiting to hear how far and how fasthe plans to go in reforming the island's struggling state-runeconomy.
Since taking over from ailing older brother Fidel Castro,Raul Castro, 77, has pushed through reforms large and smallthat have raised expectations for improvement in one of theworld's last communist states.
Cubans, hungry for more, have speculated he could announceanything from immigration reform making it easier to travel tochanges that would allow them to more freely buy and sell carsand homes.
Most of the speculation is based on Castro's promiseearlier this year to remove "excessive prohibitions" in Cubanlife.
Castro will speak at 7 p.m. local time (midnight Britishtime) in the eastern city of Santiago where he took part in aJuly 26, 1953 assault on the Moncada army barracks by youngrebels led by Fidel Castro.
Militarily, the attack was a fiasco, with many of thepoorly-equipped rebels killed, but it began an armedinsurrection against U.S.-backed dictator Fulgencio Batistathat ended with Fidel Castro taking power in 1959.
Raul Castro formally became president in a February vote bythe National Assembly, but he had ruled provisionally sincelate July 2006 when Fidel Castro underwent intestinal surgeryfrom which he has not fully recovered.
The older Castro, 81, has not appeared in public since hisJuly 26, 2006 speech, which is considered the year's mostimportant address for a Cuban leader.
SMALL CHANGES
Raul Castro began his presidency with a flurry of small,but symbolic changes that included allowing Cubans to buy cellphones and computers and go to tourist facilities previouslyreserved for foreigners.
Trying to combat rising import costs, he has undertakenbroader reforms in agriculture to increase food output byallowing private farmers and cooperatives -- more productivethan state-run operations -- to cultivate more land.
He also has taken steps to boost productivity by liftingwage limits so that better workers can make more money.
Cubans receive state-subsidized health care, education,housing and food, but the average worker earns less than $20 amonth, so grumbling about money is widespread.
In last year's July 26th speech, Castro pleased Cubans byacknowledging that wages were too low and promising economicreforms.
But the biggest changes so far have been in agriculture asCastro has moved at a deliberate pace that some blame on thecontinued presence of Fidel Castro, who is viewed as more of acommunist ideologue than his brother.
The older Castro writes columns, meets with visitingleaders and continues to be consulted about speeches anddecisions, Raul Castro has said.
Cuba experts have said they do not expect major policyannouncements from Raul Castro, who on July 11 told theNational Assembly that a slowing world economy could delay wageincreases. He also said Cuba needed to raise its retirement ageand start collecting more taxes.
"My sense is that Raul has used these important speeches toestablish benchposts for his plans to revitalize the Cubaneconomy while being careful to keep public expectations incheck," said Dan Erikson, of the Inter-American Dialogue inWashington.
"Thus he is likely to continue focusing on step-by-stepmeasures for boosting Cuba's productive capacity withoutembracing more radical reforms," he said.
Castro's early reforms spurred hope among Cubans thatchange would come rapidly after 49 years under his olderbrother. But now reality is setting in that change will comeslowly, said 72-year-old Carmen, who did not want to give herfull name.
"There's crisis in the world and we've had disorder formany years. We're going to improve, but it's slow," she said."I tell my grandchildren I'm not going to see it, but theywill."
(Additional reporting by Rosa Tania Valdes; Editing byVicki Allen)
