Poland's presidential election gives ruling party food for thought

WARSAW (Reuters) - Poles have probably never had it so good, but their president may lose his job soon -- a prospect that is raising questions about the ruling Civic Platform's chances when it faces re-election later this year.

Basking in the glow of economic growth and rising wages, President Bronislaw Komorowski had looked likely to win a second five-year term easily. Then he lost to Andrzej Duda, who was backed by the opposition Law and Justice party, in the May 10 first round.

Now Komorowski and Duda are neck and neck going into Sunday's second round. And that is casting doubt on how well Komorowski's allies in the centre-right Civil Platform will do when parliamentary elections are held, probably in the autumn.

"For sure, the voters gave us a yellow card," said Marzena Okla-Drewnowicz, a lawmaker from the ruling party.

Civic Platform has been in power since 2007, and in that time Poland?s economy has grown 33 percent, compared with the euro zone's two percent. It is forecast to outstrip its Western peers in the European Union with 3.5 percent growth this year.

But over the same period, wages have risen just 18 percent, giving some Poles the feeling that someone else is reaping the fruits of their labour. Latest available wage data show 66 percent of Poles earns less than the average monthly wage of 2,900 zlotys (510 pounds) after taxes.

INEQUALITY

Law and Justice questions the legitimacy of Poland's current political set-up. It says people associated with the old communist system benefited the most from the country's post-1989 transformation. That stance appeals to those left behind by the Polish economy's resurgence. And they are numerous.

"Maybe statistics show that (economic growth), but there is big inequality. These statistics don't translate into my situation or that of my friends," said 57-year-old Barbara, one of a number of Poles on so-called "junk contracts", casual employment based on fixed-term contracts with limited rights.

Magda, a 34-year-old manager who also declined to give her surname, said she would "risk" voting for Duda. Poland may be the promised land, she said, but "for some groups only."

"There are many people who would like (to work), but they can't because the pay is low and contracts are bad," she said. "In other countries ... I would be three times better off, so I'm also considering whether to leave."

The Civic Platform, and by extension Komorowski, have suffered as well from what critics say are broken promises of improvements to the health sector, pensions and education system.

The ruling party may also be feeling the absence of former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, its biggest asset in previous election victories. He left for Brussels late last year to become president of the European Council.

Komorowski's backers say he has struck back since the first- round loss, when he was widely criticised for a lacklustre campaign. Showing more energy, he appeared to come out on top in a televised presidential debate last weekend, watched by almost 11 million of Poland's 31 million voters.

Polling stations open at 7:00 (5:00 GMT) on Sunday and close at 21:00, when exit polls are expected. Full official results are unlikely before Monday evening. The Law and Justice party says it hopes a Duda victory will be just the beginning.

"From our point of view, this election allows us to break the glass ceiling," said deputy leader Adam Lipinski. "They pave the way to a clear win in parliamentary elections."

(Additional reporting by Jan Pytalski, Marcin Goettig and Marcin Goclowski; Writing by Marcin Goclowski; Editing by Matt Robinson, Larry King)

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