By Bappa Majumdar
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's parliament staged a stormydebate on Tuesday, hours before a tight vote of confidence inthe government that will decide the fate of a civilian nucleardeal with the United States and could trigger a snap election.
The vote, which is expected to take place around 6 p.m.(1:30 p.m. British time), pits the Congress-led coalition thatnegotiated the deal against its former communist allies andopposition parties led by the Hindu-nationalist BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP).
The result is too close to call, obscured by a flurry oflast-minute horse-trading as both sides try to attract thesupport of smaller, regional or caste-based parties.
Investors are expecting a narrow win for the government,although many remain on the sidelines. Bookmakers also favourthe government.
That feeling has helped shares recover after a string oflosses, the main share index rising by more than 10 percent inthe last three sessions and a further 1.7 percent by 2:45 p.m.(10:45 a.m. British time) on Tuesday.
If the government falls there will probably be an electionthis year. It is also likely to lead to the scrapping of thecivilian nuclear agreement and throw economic policy into limbojust as inflation rises to a 13-year-high.
Likely vote tallies compiled by some of the country's mainnewspapers and TV channels put the government between two andfour votes ahead, but listed several MPs as undecided.
The Times of India said the vote resembled the end of aclosely fought 20-over cricket match.
"We are now in the final over, and it still looks like itcould be anybody's game," it said.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh moved the confidence motionwith a brief address on Monday, and will make a full defence ofthe nuclear deal and his government's record in a concludingspeech expected around 5 p.m. (12:30 p.m. British time).
He smiled and gave a thumbs up and "V" for victory sign forthe second day in a row as he entered parliament on Tuesday.
Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, in a speechfrequently interrupted by shouting from the opposition benches,defended the government's record and said nuclear power wasvital if the country was to emulate the economic success ofChina.
"This government under Dr. Manmohan Singh's leadership ischarting out a new path which will end India's nuclearisolation, which will pave the way for India becoming aneconomic superpower," he said. "I ask this house to give aresounding vote of confidence."
JAILED MPS ARRIVE IN PRISON VANS
The nuclear deal would grant India access to foreignnuclear fuel and technology, unlocking $40 billion ininvestment over the next 15 years, according to an Indianbusiness lobby group.
But the communists withdrew their support for thegovernment in protest over the deal, saying it made India apawn of Washington. The BJP says the nuclear deal limitsIndia's ability to test nuclear weapons.
The vote is so close several MPs who are ill were beingflown or wheeled in from hospital, and others, in jail forcrimes such as murder and extortion, have been grantedtemporary release and arrived at parliament on Tuesday inprison vans.
A government defeat would be a boost for the BJP, which haswon a string of state elections this year against a backdrop ofrising inflation and criticism that millions of poor Indianswere not benefiting from the booming economy.
It would also boost the standing of Mayawati, leader of anincreasingly influential party drawing much of its support fromDalits, formerly known as "untouchables".
Mayawati is trying to project herself as a third force andpossible prime minister and has tried to wean away votes fromthe government.
BJP leader L.K. Advani said his party did not opposenuclear cooperation or a strategic relationship with the UnitedStates, but said the nuclear deal made India "a subservientpartner".
A week ago the government was confident of securing amajority with the support of the regional Samajwadi Party (SP),which replaced the communists as its parliamentary support.
Since then there have been signs of a rebellion in theranks of the SP, making the vote tougher to predict. (Editingby Alistair Scrutton and Alex Richardson)
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