The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is ´grossly
underestimating´ growth in future CO2 emissions from ships and should
make measures to reduce shipping´s carbon footprint mandatory,
according to a marine technology company.
A report prepared for the IMO in December 2007 pegged current
global shipping fuel consumption at 369 million metric tonnes (mt),
and predicted marine fuel consumption would rise to 486 million mt by
2020.
In terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, that would put current
CO2 emissions from ships at 1,120 million mt, rising to 1,475 million
mt in 2020.
The figures were significantly higher than estimates for shipping
fuel consumption and CO2 output used during discussions at the IMO´s
Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in July 2007.
Christian Eyde M0ller, Chief Executive Officer of
Netherlands-based DK Group, told Bunkerworld that his company had
warned - during a presentation at the MEPC meeting in July 2007 - that
the IMO´s emission estimates at the time were far too low.
He said the company was heavily criticised for its estimates then,
but had since had its calculations vindicated by studies from
INTERTANKO, and later the IMO´s current estimate.
"Now we believe the IMO is grossly underestimating future growth
in shipping," M0ller said. He told Bunkerworld that CO2 emissions from
ships could exceed 2 billion mt in 2020, rather than the IMO´s 1.475
billion estimate.
DK Group believes newbuilding levels in 2007 plus order books for
2008 and 2009 will mean the IMO´s CO2 estimate for 2020 will be
reached already in 2012, even when taking demolition of old ships into
account.
The company argues that near-zero growth in the shipping fleet and
associated CO2 increases after 2012 would be highly unlikely.
"We should not cheat ourselves about growth in CO2 output," said
M0ller, adding that the shipping industry should be more transparent
about its real environmental impact or it would lose credibility.
He said regulators should "get the right numbers on the table
about future emissions" to ensure that the right level of ambitions
when writing new legislation.
"Regulators should have the courage to challenge the industry to
deliver improvements in fuel efficiency and emissions," M0ller said,
adding that the only way to do that was to impose mandatory measures.
He said evidence from the automobile and airline industries has
showed that when regulation was forced on them, they proved that
innovations and solutions could be found.
Already, technologies do exist that can improve fuel efficiency on
existing vessels by up to 10% and by 30% to 40% on newbuilds,
according to DK Group, which itself has developed an Air Cavity System
(ACS) which it says can reduce a ship´s fuel use and emissions by up
to 15%.
"Shipowners understand the economic value of fuel efficiency,"
M0ller observed. With fuel cost having gone up from 20% to 50% of
operational costs in recent years, "every percent saved in fuel can
have a major impact on profitability for owners."
He urged regulators to set "ambitious but realistic" CO2 emission
reduction targets, which would be good both for the environment and
for business.
"The end game is a reduction in emissions, and the way to do that
is by improving fuel efficiency", M0ller said.
Cost savings due to improved fuel efficiency could be used to
drive further technology developments, he suggested.
