By Ben Blanchard
TAIPEI (Reuters) - An end to the more than half a centuryof hostility and tension between Taiwan and China may be in theoffing with the election of a more China-friendly president forthe island, but progress will be slow and tortuous.
The opposition Nationalist Party's Ma Ying-jeou won in alandslide on Saturday against an opponent who had tried to userecent bloody protests in Tibet to scare people into not votingfor Ma.
The Democratic Progressive Party's Frank Hsieh said Taiwanrisked becoming another Tibet if Ma, with his more pro-Chinaviews, won.
Though that strategy backfired, Ma now has to try and reachout to China, but without being seen to compromise Taiwan'ssecurity.
"The people of Taiwan hope for peace across the straits,they don't want war," Ma told thousands of cheering supportersin his victory speech.
But Ma said he would not consider talking peace with China,which claims the self-ruled island as its own, until Beijingremoves missiles aimed at Taiwan.
The two sides have been run separately since 1949, whendefeated Nationalist forces fled to Taiwan at the end of acivil war. China has never renounced the use of force to bringthe island under its control.
Despite that, economic ties are close, and Taiwanesecompanies have invested billions of dollars in China, drawn bylow costs and a common language and culture. China is alsoTaiwan's biggest trading partner.
Yet there are still no direct flights allowed across thenarrow Taiwan Strait.
"Voters hope that Ma will help cross-Strait relations toreturn to normal and that both sides can see a win-winsolution," said Jeff Lin, associate dean of the Institute ForAdvanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences at NationalTaiwan University.
"But this will be his biggest challenge, becausecross-Strait relations take a lot of negotiation and Taiwandoes not have the people who will be able to do that. Thereforewe could be at a disadvantage," Lin added.
ARMED TO THE TEETH
The state of war between the two sides still exists, as nopeace treaty has ever been signed. Taiwan is armed to theteeth, mainly with U.S. weapons, and China is rapidlymodernising its military to close the technology gap.
Chinese President Hu Jintao offered earlier this monthpeace talks, under the so-called "one China" principle, whichcontends the island and the mainland are part of a singlesovereign country, a concept Taiwan's current government hasrejected.
Ma may concentrate on the easier aspects of dealing withChina, such as practical issues like the ban on direct links,rather than far thornier political problems. And he will haveto prioritise Taiwan's pressing domestic economic issues.
"Ma Ying-jeou is really focused on cross-Strait relations,"said Chao Chien-min, professor at Taipei's National Cheng ChiUniversity.
"In the near future we can expect direct flights andtourism. But a peace agreement isn't so easily possible. Ournational development is a new priority," Chao added.
And don't expect dramatic progress this year, said BruceJacobs, Asian Studies professor at Australia's MonashUniversity.
"At the end of 2008 I wouldn't expect any breakthroughswith China. The Chinese don't think it's in their interestunless they get their one China," he said.
"To be nice to China and expect China to be nice back isnot going to work."
(Additional reporting by Ralph Jennings and Sheena Lee;Editing by David Fox)
