By Estelle Shirbon
ABUJA (Reuters) - A Nigerian tribunal rejected the first oftwo legal challenges to President Umaru Yar'Adua's 2007election on Tuesday as it began a ruling that could maintainthe status quo or bring political limbo.
The tribunal in Africa's most populous nation ruled thatopposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari, Yar'Adua's mainopponent, had failed to prove that violations of the electorallaw were substantial enough to invalidate the overall result.
It still had to complete its ruling on another challengebrought by former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who came thirdin the election that local and international observers said wasmarred by massive fraud.
The tribunal has faced a dilemma. It could legitimise anelection that was labelled "a charade" by the main Nigerianobserver group, or risk destabilising a major oil exporter thatemerged just nine years ago from decades of coups and armyrule.
Some commentators saw the tribunal ruling as a positivedevelopment regardless of the outcome because, unlike in Kenyawhere the disputed December 27 poll led to violence on thestreets, Nigeria's aggrieved candidates took their protests tocourt.
"The ultimate winners are our democracy and indeed ourjudicial system, along with millions of Nigerians let down bythe kleptomaniacs who shot or rigged their way into positionsof leadership," wrote Muhammad Al-Ghazali in Daily Trustnewspaper.
Whatever the tribunal's decision on Tuesday, the legalbattle is likely to drag on because the losing parties canappeal to the Supreme Court.
If the judgment went against Yar'Adua and he appealed, hewould remain president until the Supreme Court delivers itsverdict. However, he would be weakened and government businesswould likely grind to a halt until the final ruling.
Many in the political class fear annulment would lead to along period of political gridlock followed by an equally flawedre-run under the same electoral body.
Lower tribunals, at state level, have already annulled theelections of seven out of 36 state governors, the Senatepresident and dozens of federal and state legislators.
A few months ago, most Nigerians would have considered itunthinkable for a court to overturn a presidential election,but the multiple annulments have changed that perception.
(For views on the tribunal, take a look at the Africa blog:http://blogs.reuters.com/africa/2008/02/14/talking-point-how-will-the-presidential-election-tribunals-verdict-affect-nigeria/)
