By Estelle Shirbon
ABUJA (Reuters) - A Nigerian tribunal will uphold or annulthe 2007 election of President Umaru Yar'Adua on Tuesday in aruling that could either legitimise a deeply flawed poll orpush Africa's most populous nation into political limbo.
Yar'Adua and his People's Democratic Party (PDP) won acrushing victory in last April's general elections but localand international observers accused the ruling party of massivefraud. EU monitors judged the polls "not credible".
Yar'Adua's two nearest rivals, former army ruler MuhammaduBuhari and then Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, challenged theresult before a special tribunal of five judges which is due tostart delivering its ruling at 10 a.m. (9. a.m British time).
Police cordoned off the area around the courthouse to keepout chanting supporters of the challengers. A few ministers andPDP state governors arrived to show their support for Yar'Adua.
The tribunal faces a dilemma. It can legitimise an electionthat was labelled "a charade" by the main Nigerian observergroup, or risk destabilising a major oil exporter that emergedjust nine years ago from decades of coups and army rule.
Some commentators saw the tribunal ruling as a positivedevelopment regardless of the outcome because, unlike in Kenyawhere the disputed December 27 poll led to violence on thestreets, Nigeria's aggrieved candidates took their protests tocourt.
"The ultimate winners are our democracy and indeed ourjudicial system, along with millions of Nigerians let down bythe kleptomaniacs who shot or rigged their way into positionsof leadership," wrote Muhammad Al-Ghazali in Daily Trustnewspaper.
Whatever the tribunal's decision on Tuesday, the legalbattle is likely to drag on because the losing parties canappeal to the Supreme Court.
If the judgment went against Yar'Adua and he appealed, hewould remain president until the Supreme Court delivers itsverdict. However, he would be weakened and government businesswould likely grind to a halt until the final ruling.
Many in the political class fear annulment would lead to along period of political gridlock followed by an equally flawedre-run under the same electoral body.
Lower tribunals, at state level, have already annulled theelections of seven out of 36 state governors, the Senatepresident and dozens of federal and state legislators.
A few months ago, most Nigerians would have considered itunthinkable for a court to overturn a presidential election,but the multiple annulments have changed that perception.
(For views on the tribunal, take a look at the Africa blog:http://blogs.reuters.com/africa/2008/02/14/talking-point-how-will-the-presidential-election-tribunals-verdict-affect-nigeria/)
