The Risk Management Association (RMA), in alliance with Automated
Financial Systems, Inc. (AFS), this week released its commercial
credit risk benchmarking data updated through fourth quarter 2007. The
fourth quarter results reflect portfolio data for middle market
exposure provided by 16 top tier participating institutions, estimated
to represent over one-half of all middle market commercial loans in
the U.S.
The non-accrual percentage of middle market loans began to rise
over one year ago and now represent 0.68% of total loan outstanding
balances. This figure represents a 21% increase over the prior quarter
and a 79% increase from year-end 2006. From an industry perspective,
the construction sector continues to lead the deterioration with 1.99%
of these loans now being reported as non-accruing, up 66% and 315%
over prior quarter and year-ago periods, respectively. From a
delinquency perspective, the construction sector was also the weakest
performing industry. Loans past due 30 to 89 days now represent 1.36%
of the outstandings for the sector, up 68% from the year ago period
and double the national average ratio of 0.64%. These trends also
suggest non-accrual levels will continue to rise in upcoming quarters.
"The deterioration found in the Risk Analysis Service portfolio
metrics confirms the challenges that financial institutions will face
over the upcoming quarters. Institutions that are able to stay abreast
of the changing credit quality of the middle market will be able to
make better informed decisions," said Kevin Blakely, RMA president and
CEO.
These findings come from the RMA/AFS Risk Analysis Service, a
global credit risk data collection service that enables participating
banks to compare their respective risk profiles in defined portfolio
segments to industry peers and the industry as a whole. The Service
allows participants to gain real-time insights into changing credit
quality, portfolio concentrations, and answers the critical question
of "How do we compare?" in these turbulent times.
Institutions participating in the Service now have access to an
expanded set of risk rating metrics. In addition to borrower risk
ratings, institutions are now able to segment their portfolios by
measures of default probability, loss given default, and expected
loss, risk parameters mandated by the international Basel II rules.
For additional information on the Risk Analysis Service, please
contact Suzanne Wharton at RMA at +1 (215) 446-4089 or Doug Skinner at
AFS at +1 (484) 875-1562.
