By Linda Sieg
TOKYO (Reuters) - Boxed in by rebels in his own party and a defiant opposition, Japan's prime minister calls a snap election as a referendum on reform, setting the stage for a massive victory at the polls.
That was maverick Junichiro Koizumi in 2005.
Experts say embattled Prime Minister Naoto Kan may be considering something similar to break a political impasse with the promise of ending Japan's reliance on nuclear power and calling a snap poll to seek a mandate for the policy change.
For now, that scenario seems less likely than another round of policy deadlock and political manoeuvring.
But experts say there is a chance Kan might take the gamble rather than become the latest in a long line of short-lived leaders. He is the fifth premier since Koizumi's departure in 2006.
"I wouldn't rule out the possibility (of a snap election on energy policy)," said Sophia University professor Koichi Nakano.
"Kan is still one of the few politicians in Japan able to do things that are bold and risky. His survival instincts are quite strong and unmatched by recent Japanese prime ministers," Nakano added. Kan's four predecessors all lasted about a year or less.
Kan survived a no-confidence vote early this month by pledging to "hand over to the younger generation" once progress had been made in resolving the nuclear crisis at Tokyo Electric Power Co's Fukushima plant and rebuilding from the huge March 11 earthquake and tsunami that devastated northeast Japan.
His rivals hoped that meant he would depart in weeks.
But the former civic activist has now made clear that he wants to enact three key bills in an extended parliament session set to end on August 21: one allowing fresh borrowing to fund this year's $1 trillion budget, a small extra budget to aid disaster victims, and steps to promote renewable energy.
Kan's addition of the energy bill to his to-do list has angered rivals in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan as well as the opposition, whose control of the upper house lets it block legislation other than budgets and treaties.
Opposition parties may agree to enact the deficit bond issuance bill rather than risk voter ire by prompting a government shut-down and will probably support the small second extra budget, which will not require more borrowing.
TURNING UP THE VOLUME
But political jockeying could delay a bigger extra budget needed to fund Japan's biggest reconstruction project since the days after World War Two, threatening to scupper a recovery.
"We have improvement of the supply chain. But if we don't have improvement of demand, deflation gets worse and that's the road they're on right now," said Robert Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities in Tokyo.
The renewable energy bill, which would force utilities to buy electricity from all types of renewable sources, faces opposition from Japan's business lobby, worries about higher costs, as well as lawmakers who have cosy ties to utilities.
An election would be a big risk for Kan, whose ratings are below 30 percent after just over one year in office. Once known as a fiery debater, as premier Kan has lacked Koizumi's flair for appealing to voters via media.
"Imitating Koizumi with a single-issue election would be quite difficult," said Nihon University professor Tomoaki Iwai.
Kan, who pledged to more than double the share of renewables such as solar power to over 20 percent by the 2020s, has been turning up the volume on the topic. Cynics say the implicit threat of an election could be intended to bring his own fractious party into line.
One media report on Thursday said he might appoint Masayoshi Son, CEO of mobile phone carrier Softbank Corp and a high-profile advocate of alternative energy, to a cabinet post.
A renewable energy pitch could find favour with a public growing more concerned about the risk of nuclear accidents in the quake-prone country as the crisis at Tokyo Electric Power Co's Fukushima plant drags on.
Almost three out of four voters in a recent media survey said they wanted to see a gradual phase-out of nuclear power.
Kan, however, would need to spell out plans for a transition away from nuclear power, which before the March 11 disaster accounted for nearly 30 percent of Japan's electricity supply.
He would also have to clarify his support for restarting off-line reactors despite concerns by local communities about possible accidents. The government is pushing for the reactors to resume operations due to concerns a power shortage could hurt the fragile economy.
Nor would an election over nuclear power necessarily produce a clear result. "It's a pretty complicated issue and you probably don't want a national referendum on it," Feldman said.
"The election would probably come down to, 'are you pro- or anti-nuclear', and most people are grey, so it would be hard to vote."
(Editing by Jonathan Thatcher)
