By Carmel Crimmins
DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland's main opposition party was expected to be swept into power on Saturday on a wave of voter anger over the country's economic collapse and resentment at the harsh rescue terms laid down by its European partners.
In the biggest political shake-up since Ireland won independence from Britain in 1921, Enda Kenny's centre-right Fine Gael party is expected to replace a decimated Fianna Fail as the dominant force in Irish politics.
Opinion polls carried out before Friday's election showed Fianna Fail, in government for most of the past 79 years, would be the first political victim of Europe's debt crisis while Fine Gael was within shot of an outright majority for the first time.
State broadcaster RTE said voter turnout appeared to be strong with expectations of an increase on the 67 percent turnout recorded at the last election in 2007 when a disastrous property bubble, at the root of the current crisis, peaked.
Manual counting of votes will start at 9:00 a.m. and the broad outline of a new parliament should be known late on Saturday. RTE will have an exit poll at 8:00 a.m.
Ireland's transformation from economic pin-up to euro zone struggler has electrified the 3 million plus electorate but overall their instincts remain conservative.
Like Fianna Fail, Fine Gael has a pro-business and low-tax ideology and it has pledged to stick to the overall austerity targets laid down by the EU and IMF as a condition of an 85 billion euros bailout package agreed in December.
Kenny, a former teacher and Ireland's longest-serving parliamentarian, is almost certain to be the next prime minister.
Analysts expect he will form a coalition with the centre-left Labour party to ensure a large parliamentary majority to navigate the EU/IMF programme and avoid the political instability that dogged the dying days of the Fianna Fail administration.
The 59-year-old will face immediate pressure to fulfil an election pledge to renegotiate parts of the bailout and ease some of the burden on an electorate already struggling to make ends meet.
Fine Gael has reversed previous threats to unilaterally impose losses on some senior bondholders in Irish banks, who are protected under the EU/IMF deal, but its "burn the bondholder" rhetoric was enough to prompt a downgrade of some bank debt this month by ratings agency Moody's.
While Ireland's borrowing costs may be reduced as part of a wider EU agreement on resolving the debt crisis next month, Dublin is unlikely to receive a green light to impose losses on senior bondholders in Irish banks due to opposition from the European Central Bank (ECB).
Given that the ECB is keeping Irish banks alive with more than 126 billion euros in emergency funding, Fine Gael, a party in the European Christian Democrat tradition, is unlikely to go against Frankfurt's wishes.
But in return for a "comprehensive package" to deal with Europe's debt crisis, due to be finalised at a March 24-25 summit, Ireland like other euro zone nations will have to swallow concessions and Kenny will have to battle to ringfence Dublin's sacrosanct low rate of corporation tax.
Even with more relaxed borrowing terms, Ireland will still have to get the worst budget deficit in Europe under control by 2015 and if growth falters more cuts may be needed on top of last year's record austerity measures and the 9 billion euros in adjustments pencilled in for 2012-2014.
The return of mass emigration -- an estimated 1,000 people are leaving the island every week -- and a disinclination to take the streets has meant Ireland has avoided the kind of mass public protests seen in fellow euro zone struggler Greece.
But hard-left parties, including Sinn Fein, once the political wing of the now-dormant Irish Republican Army (IRA), have seen a surge in support and are expected to make up a noisy minority in the new parliament.
