By Felix Onuah and Camillus Eboh
ABUJA (Reuters) - Thousands of Nigerians gathered in Abuja on Saturday to hear President Goodluck Jonathan proclaim his candidacy in January elections, likely to be the most fiercely contested since the end of military rule.
Jonathan, who has already said on his Facebook page that he will run in the election, may have all the advantages of incumbency but his bid faces resistance from some parts of the north and risks splitting the ruling party.
There has been an unspoken agreement in the People's Democratic Party (PDP) since Nigeria's return to democracy 11 years ago that power alternates every two terms between north and south, a rhythm which Jonathan's bid is set to disrupt.
Jonathan, who is from the Niger Delta in the south, inherited the presidency when late president Umaru Yar'Adua, a northerner, died this year during his first term, and some PDP powerbrokers say the next leader must be a northerner.
The ruling party, which is due to hold primaries in mid-October, has recognised Jonathan's constitutional right to run and supporters say that since he was on a joint ticket with Yar'Adua, he can seek to serve out at least that second term.
"It is his intention to spend only four years, the remaining Yar'Adua term," Jonathan's campaign director Dalhatu Tafida told reporters on the eve of the rally in Abuja, but added that politics was not about individuals.
"For now we should give him four years and see how he performs and then decide whether he can continue," he said.
Thousands of Jonathan's supporters carrying banners and chanting "PDP, PDP" converged on Eagle Square, a major parade ground in the capital Abuja where former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida launched a rival election campaign on Wednesday.
Recent policy announcements from Jonathan's administration have sounded like campaign pledges, from privatising the power sector in a bid to end chronic electricity shortages to stricter management of oil savings through a sovereign wealth fund.
He said in Wednesday's statement on his Facebook page that he had already delivered on reducing fuel shortages, provided a bailout package for the troubled textile industry and helped protect bank deposits with a state asset management company.
But it is powerful northerners within the PDP, rather than just the voting public, whom he will need to convince.
FIERCE BATTLE AHEAD
The PDP nominee has won all three presidential races since the end of military rule in 1999, making the outcome of past elections a foregone conclusion and bringing Africa's most populous nation close to being a one-party state.
But the presidential race this time is more contentious, with no consensus PDP candidate and no obvious "godfather" -- the powerful background figures who have in the past hand-picked the nominee -- holding sway over the party.
Babangida, a northerner who seized power in the OPEC member in August 1985 and ruled for nearly eight years, also wants the PDP ticket and is hoping northerners opposed to Jonathan will rally behind him. He has vowed he would serve only one term.
But Babangida too is a divisive figure. He was forced from power after cancelling an election that was generally regarded as fair, and this colours his political reputation.
He faces other northern challengers within the PDP including former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who switched to the ruling party after running unsuccessfully for president as the opposition Action Congress candidate in the last vote in 2007.
Kwara state governor Bukola Saraki and national security adviser Aliyu Gusau could also win northern backing if they decide to seek the PDP nomination, analysts say.
The threat to Jonathan from the northern factions depends on their ability to unite behind a single candidate. Should Babangida, Abubakar, Saraki and Gusau all push their campaigns to the finish line, they may fail to do so.
(Writing by Nick Tattersall; editing by Ralph Boulton)
