Burlington Northern forecasts hint at weak 2010: report

Railroads, which transport more than 40 percent of U.S. freight, are often used as a gauge for the industrial sector, the report said.

Major indexes now match -- or are close to matching -- 2009 highs, and many industrial stock valuations suggest significant recovery, Barron's said.

By contrast, Burlington managements' most optimistic earnings forecast is short of Street estimates. Management forecasts best-case earnings of $5.06 in 2010, compared with Wall Street consensus estimates of $5.50 per share, according to the report.

Managers said it was more likely that the economy would not begin its recovery until 2011, causing the railroad shares to earn only $4.40 in 2010, Barron's said.

The weak forecasts suggest Berkshire may have overpaid for Burlington Northern, according to the report. Burlington Northern's shares are currently trading at about $98.40, below Buffett's $100 bid, the report said.

JPMorgan railroad analyst Thomas Wadewitz wrote recently that Burlington's management may be conservative and may not provide a good read of the other railroads. But Assistant Vice President of Policy Analysis with the Association of American Railroads Dan Keen said that there is no V-shaped recovery, and that the recovery is shallow.

(Reporting by Clare Baldwin, editing by Maureen Bavdek)

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