By James Grubel
CANBERRA (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's Labor party won provincial elections in his home state of Queensland on Saturday, but suffered setbacks which are likely to cool speculation of an early national election.
The result saw a surge in support of almost 4 percent towards the Liberal National Party, but not enough to unseat Premier Anna Bligh, who led Labor to a fifth straight win after 11 years in power in Queensland, one of Australia's leading mining areas.
The election was the first vote in Australia since the onset of the global financial crisis, but Treasurer Wayne Swan said the election was fought and won on local issues and had no implications for Rudd's government.
"The fact is it was a state election, fought on state issues," Swan told Australian Broadcasting Corporation television.
Queensland was a crucial state in Rudd's election victory in late 2007 and the swing away from the state Labor party is likely make Rudd more cautious about possibly calling an early national election to cash in on his continued high poll rating.
Analysts said it was impossible to draw direct implications for support for Rudd's national government, as Australian voters regularly vote for one party at a state level and another at national elections.
But Queensland-based Liberal Party Senator George Brandis said Rudd's national government would lose five seats if the state result was replicated in Queensland at a federal election.
"The movement away from the Labor Party, if translated into a federal election in Queensland, would cost the Labor Party five seats," Brandis said.
Rudd is not due to hold national elections until the second half of 2010, just as government forecasts the worst impact of the global downturn will hit Australian unemployment and economic growth.
Some analysts have suggested Rudd might want an election late this year or in early 2010 to avoid holding a poll during the worst of the economic downturn, and to cash in on disarray within the conservative opposition parties.
Bligh called the election six months early, saying she needed a new mandate with the state facing growing unemployment and rising debt, due to the downturn and falling prices for Queensland's coal and mineral exports.
"Queenslanders, thank you," Bligh said as she claimed victory. "You have given me a mandate to protect your jobs and build a stronger Queensland, and I am ready for the task."
State Liberal National Party leader Lawrence Springborg conceded defeat, but said his party had won about 10 seats from Labor in a shift in political support which would normally result in a change of government.
"When you normally achieve a 3 to 4 percent swing, that most often achieves a change of government," Springborg said. "But it wasn't meant to be."
