WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Slumping demand for new cars likely drove U.S. retail sales into the red during February after a surprise January rise, according to a poll of 76 economists by Reuters.
With unemployment still soaring and household wealth under severe pressure, overall retail sales are forecast to drop 0.5 percent in February after posting a 1 percent gain in January.
Excluding autos, retail sales are forecast to fall only 0.2 percent after a 0.9 percent rise in January.
The U.S. Commerce Department will release February retail sales data at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.
Gasoline sales should rise on higher prices and some retailers posted better-than-expected February same-store sales as new spring merchandise arrived, but shoppers were cautious amid the financial crisis.
Retail sales are monitored as a proxy for U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity. The economy has been mired in a recession since December 2007.
The following is a selection of comments from economists:
BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ
Forecast: Sales +0.2 percent
ex-autos +0.7 percent
Headwinds are amazingly strong against the consumer with an increasing unemployment rate that drove consumer confidence down to an all-time low in February. There are some bright spots. Firmer gas prices will lead to an increase in sales at gasoline stations. Auto sales slumped further in February and are expected to weigh, to the tune of 0.5 percentage points, on retail sales growth.
WACHOVIA
Forecast: Sales -0.7 percent
ex-autos +0.7 percent
We expect retail sales declined 0.7 percent in February, with most of the drop due to a decline in motor vehicle sales. February motor vehicle sales should be more in line with the decline in unit sales. Retail sales excluding autos should increase 0.7 percent driven by an increase in discount store sales and retail gasoline sales.
BMO CAPITAL MARKETS
Forecast: Sales -0.5 percent
ex-autos -0.3 percent
Retail sales likely sagged anew in February amid mounting layoffs and crushing equity losses. Unit auto sales reversed another 5 percent to fresh 27-year lows. Excluding autos, sales likely fell 0.3 percent as chain-store sales fell slightly (and the least in five months).
(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit)
(Reporting by Nancy Waitz; editing by Leslie Adler)
