Economía

El menor crecimiento este año llevará el déficit al 7%, según los expertos

Sin las medidas de ajuste adoptadas sobre la marcha se desvanecía la meta que exige Bruselas. La merma en los ingresos de la Seguridad Social y el gasto en pensiones barruntan 'números rojos'.

El empeoramiento del entorno macroeconómico impedirá cumplir con el objetivo de déficit que España ha de rendir ante Bruselas en diciembre, fijado este año en el -6,3 por ciento del PIB para el conjunto de las Administraciones Públicas. En consecuencia, los expertos consultados por elEconomsita ubican el saldo negativo en el entorno del -7 por ciento, en consonancia con la reciente previsión del Fondo Monetario Internacional.

Al deterioro económico, se une como preocupación de los analistas la preocupante evolución de las cuentas de la Seguridad Social, que ahogan las opciones para el cumplimiento del déficit en diciembre.

Cambio de conducta, la clave

El economista jefe de Cemex, Manuel Balmaseda, aprecia "muy difícil" lograr el -6,3 por ciento y apunta al consenso del -7 por ciento. La dificultad estriba, a su juicio, en que la economía crece menos y los ingresos se debilitan. "Los recortes ya no palían esa tendencia", indica. Balmaseda llama la atención sobre un factor decisivo: "hay que desmitificar el número". Lo importante es asentar políticas que reconduzcan el gasto, no tanto la cifra que se logre. En resumen, el -6,3 por ciento es un medio, no un fin en sí mismo que haya que anteponer a la implantación de una nueva conducta. Según Balmaseda, si el Ejecutivo se empeña en cumplir la cifra por encima de todo, tendrá que tomar más medidas y dará la imagen de que siempre está haciendo ajustes.

Por su parte, el profesor de Economía de la UCM Fernando Méndez Ibisate estima que "lo más probable, con una probabilidad muy alta, es que no cumplamos el -6,3 por ciento". De hecho, cree que el saldo negativo podría irse incluso por encima del 7 por ciento por el menor crecimiento, las cuentas de la Seguridad Social, que ya echa mano del Fondo de Reserva, y porque algunas CCAA podrían desviarse.

Ese mismo factor lo resalta el catedrático emérito de la Universidad de Colonia Juergen B. Donges. El experto hispanoalemán no cree que las autonomías vayan a realizar los ajustes marcados por el Gobierno central, algo aún más preocupante, para Donges, que el impacto de la recesión sobre el componente cíclico del déficit.

El profesor Juan Velarde sí que ve visos de cumplir. "Posible es", indica, pero añadiendo medidas racionales, de aquí a diciembre, a las "serias" iniciativas ya tomadas.

Más pesimista es el profesor del Instituto de Estudios Bursátiles Miguel Ángel Bernal, aunque no vislumbra necesariamente un -7 por ciento. Ve posible un -6,6. Eso sí, resalta que la situación económica es muy mala. La recaudación será menor de la prevista; la subida del IVA no atraerá tantos ingresos como el Gobierno cree; y las pensiones pueden vapulear aún más las cuentas de la Seguridad Social, explica.

Eso al margen del rescate y el saneamiento bancario. De hecho, Bernal señala como elemento clave la evolución de la prima de riesgo si seguimos sin pedir el rescate por su sobrecarga en los intereses con los que se financia el país. El profesor del IEB estima que es más verosímil la previsión del FMI que la del Ejecutivo de Rajoy, y que el dato final estará más cerca de la primera.

El director general del Instituto de Estudios Económicos, Joaquín Trigo, también apunta a los intereses como factor desestabilizador que puede llevarnos al 7 por ciento. De hecho, indica que a tipos más bajos de financiación llegaríamos perfectamente al -6,3 por ciento. Eso sí, con los riesgos que hacen atisbar una recaudación menor de la que calcula el Gobierno y en el contexto de unas autonomías no todo lo implicadas y concernidas con la situación de nuestras cuentas.

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Chiffon Scoop Halter with Ruched Bodice and Short A line Skirt Mother of Bride Dress

Chiffon Scoop Halter with Ruched Bodice and Short A line Skirt Mother of Bride Dress



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