By Jim Loney
(Corrects temperature in paragraph 5)
MIAMI (Reuters) - The 10 tropical storms and hurricanesthat ripped through the Atlantic and Caribbean during this busyhurricane season savaged Haiti, Cuba and the U.S. Gulf coast,and conditions are now ripe for more.
Residents of the Atlantic-Caribbean danger zone should notlet down their guard, despite a brief lull in the actionfollowing Tropical Storm Josephine's demise two weeks ago andHurricane Ike's strike on the Texas coast, experts said.
"Conditions are still favourable for hurricanes. Peoplereally need to stay on their toes," said Gerry Bell, the leadhurricane season forecaster for the U.S. National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration.
Forecasters had predicted the season, which runs throughNovember 30, could produce up to 18 cyclones, and the warm seatemperatures, low wind shear and other factors that contributeto the formation of hurricanes are still in place.
Water in the Caribbean and Atlantic is warmer than usual by0.9 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius),Bell said. Hurricanes feed on warm sea water.
Patches of cooler water, drawn from the depths by thepassage of powerful hurricanes like Ike and Gustav, haveappeared around Cuba and in the Gulf of Mexico, but they arenot likely to have a big impact on future storms.
Wind shear, which is the difference in wind speeds atdifferent levels of the atmosphere and which can disruptnascent hurricanes, is relatively low.
El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm water phenomenon that candampen Atlantic storm formation, has not developed. Neutral ElNino conditions are expected for the rest of the season,experts said.
"Through October 15th I would not let my guard down on the(U.S.) eastern seaboard at all," AccuWeather forecaster JoeBastardi said, predicting another three to five storms.
"Between the 25th (of September) and 15th of October theCaribbean will light up, but first, something may form off theCarolinas," he said.
TOUGH YEAR
Six consecutive Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes hitthe United States from late July to mid-September, causingbillions of dollars in damage. Four in a row swamped Haiti,killing hundreds of people.
Gustav and Ike crushed Cuba before heading off to the U.S.Gulf Coast, where they rampaged through oil and gas fields.
At this point, just after the statistical peak of thesix-month season, there is no comparison to 2005, the all-timerecord-breaker with 28 storms, when forecasters ran out ofstorm names and had to resort to the Greek alphabet. That yearspawned Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans.
On September 18 of 2005, Rita formed. It was the 17th stormof the season and eventually became a 180 mph (290 kph)monster, one of the strongest hurricanes in history.
But not even in 2005 did six storms in a row hit the UnitedStates.
In fact, the U.S. National Hurricane Centre says that sofar it has not found another year since records began in 1851in which the United States was hit by six tropical cyclones ina row, but it was still digging through databases.
The tendency to target U.S. shores is partly due to theatmospheric conditions that steer hurricanes. In some years,many of the storms that charge across the ocean eventuallycurve harmlessly northward without reaching the United States.
"We've had an extensive area of high pressure in the middleand upper atmosphere that has helped to steer the hurricaneswest at lower latitudes," Bell said. "They have not recurvedinto the Atlantic."
(Editing by Michael Christie and Ross Colvin)
