By Jon Herskovitz
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's president convened anemergency meeting of his cabinet to prepare for possiblechanges in North Korea after speculation its leader Kim Jong-ilhad suffered a stroke, an official said on Thursday.
Kim, 66, has led communist North Korea for 14 years, underwhich the reclusive country has seen it anaemic economy shrink,its ballistic missile arsenal swell and U.N. sanctions imposeddue to its nuclear programme and first atomic test two yearsago.
"We should have thorough and precise readiness so we canrespond to any situation without confusion," President LeeMyung-bak was quoted as saying in a statement from thespokesman of the presidential Blue House. The meeting was lateon Wednesday.
"There was a report that Chairman Kim is recovering from astroke in the brain circulatory system and does not appear tobe in a serious condition," a Blue House spokesman said.
U.S. and South Korean intelligence officials said earlierthat Kim had suffered a stroke. The South's intelligence saidKim was recovering well, while North Korean officialsreportedly said there was nothing wrong with their leader.
The statement said the South had spotted no unusual troopmovements in the North, but Lee had asked his government tostep up readiness plans for possible contingencies.
The mystery surrounding Kim also leaves a frighteningquestion mark for South Korea, for which a worst-case scenariowould be the collapse of the North, leaving it facing socialchaos that could wreck Asia's fourth-largest economy.
"The latest incident proves that this scenario (ofunification) is no longer a distant prospect but an unavoidablereality we may have to face right now," South Korea's largestnewspaper, Chosun Ilbo, said in an editorial.
Kim's death would create huge uncertainty over leadershipin a country whose deep distrust of the outside world is backedby a 1.2 million-strong army and possibly atomic weapons.
The North has threatened to turn the capitalist South todust and considers Japan and the United States mortal enemies.
In a move that could heighten tension, North Korea isnearing completion of a missile test site capable of shootingoff rockets that could hit all of South Korea and most ofJapan, U.S. broadcaster CNN cited analysts as saying.
NUCLEAR DEAL
Kim's illness comes as the North appears to be backing awayfrom an international nuclear disarmament deal and analystssaid progress would almost certainly be scuttled if there was aleadership struggle.
"My first inclination is that it will go to a hunker downmode and not pursue a breakthrough or a breakdown," said PeterBeck, an expert in Korean affairs at American University inWashington.
"I would be surprised if they broke the deal. They wouldonly do that if that felt that they really needed to rally thepublic."
Kim's health and possible successor are two of Pyongyang'smost closely guarded secrets.
South Korea said in a 2006 intelligence report that whenKim died, it expected the North Korean government to lapse intoa brief coma and then hunker down with top military officialsbattling for power, perhaps in partnership with one of Kim'sthree known sons.
Kim, whom state media calls the Dear Leader, was groomedfor years to succeed his father and the North's foundingpresident Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994.
During his time in power, Kim has crushed dissent andplaced an enormous distance between himself and any potentialrival, which means there is no clear heir.
(Additional reporting by Jack Kim; Editing by Nick Macfieand Alex Richardson)