By Jeremy Pelofsky
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush will cutU.S. force levels in Iraq only modestly over the rest of histerm, pulling 8,000 troops out by February, when his successorwill have taken over as commander in chief.
Bush, an unpopular president managing an unpopular war,will say on Tuesday that a dramatic drop in violence in Iraqallows the Pentagon to bring troops home and shift more forcesto Afghanistan, where attacks by Islamist militants have soaredover two years.
"While the enemy in Iraq is still dangerous, we have seizedthe offensive, and Iraqi forces are becoming increasinglycapable of leading and winning the fight," Bush plans to say atthe National Defence University, according to his preparedremarks released on Monday by the White House.
"And if the progress in Iraq continues to hold, Gen.(David) Petraeus and our military leaders believe additionalreductions will be possible in the first half of 2009."
A cut of 8,000 would leave 138,000 U.S. troops in Iraq --still more than before Bush ordered a "surge" of extra forcesin 2007 and also more than in November 2006, when hisRepublicans lost mid-term congressional elections largely dueto voter anger over the war.
Bush's plan follows recommendations from top U.S. defenceofficials, including Defence Secretary Robert Gates, Chairmanof the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen and Petraeus, thetop commander in Iraq.
But any large-scale shift in U.S. forces in Iraq andAfghanistan will be left to Bush's successor -- eitherRepublican Sen. John McCain or Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.Bush will leave office in January 2009 after the November 4election.
Obama has promised to withdraw combat troops from Iraqwithin 16 months and said he would put more resources intoAfghanistan and counterterrorism efforts along the Pakistanborder, where U.S. officials say they believe al Qaeda leaderOsama bin Laden is hiding.
McCain has steadfastly refused any set timeline forwithdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq and instead prefers Bush'spolicy of removing them based on commanders' recommendationsand security conditions in the war zone.
SHIFTING FOCUS
Bush, in his speech on Tuesday, will point to data showingviolence in Iraq has dropped to levels not seen since 2004.
But he will caution that progress in Iraq, which U.S.-ledforces invaded in March 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein, remains"fragile and reversible."
Bush's surge strategy, which added about 30,000 troops toIraq, has been credited with helping to reduce violence andpulling Iraq back from the brink of civil war. The surge, whenannounced in 2007, was criticized by many Democrats who saidthe United States should be pulling out.
About 20,000 of those surge troops have returned homewithout replacement, leaving 146,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.
Bush will say some 3,400 support troops will leave Iraqover the coming months, along with a Marine battalion byNovember. One of the 15 Army combat brigades will leave inFebruary, bringing the total to about 8,000 withdrawn, Bushwill say.
But as violence has fallen in Iraq, attacks against U.S.,NATO and Afghan troops in Afghanistan have soared. NATOcommanders there have asked for additional forces for years andsay they still need about 12,000 troops.
The United States has 33,000 troops in Afghanistan, splitbetween a NATO-led mission and a separate counterterrorismmission run by the U.S. military.
Bush will say he plans to shift more troops to Afghanistan,which U.S.-led coalition forces invaded in October 2001 toremove the fundamentalist Taliban government in the wake of theSeptember 11 attacks on the United States by al Qaedamilitants.
"In November, a Marine battalion that was scheduled todeploy to Iraq will instead deploy to Afghanistan," accordingto the speech text. "It will be followed in January by an Armycombat brigade."
(Editing by Kristin Roberts and John O'Callaghan )
