By Nopporn Wong-Anan and Ed Cropley
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravejwill meet senior aides later on Monday to consider optionsahead of a court ruling that could force him from power, asenior government source said.
The Constitutional Court will rule on Tuesday whether the73-year-old prime minister broke the law by hosting televisioncooking shows while in office. If found guilty of conflict ofinterest, Samak will have to step down along with his cabinet,which would satisfy thousands of protesters barricaded insidehis official compound for two weeks demanding his resignation.
"We expect it to be bad," the government source toldReuters.
"He is pondering whether to call it quits before ithappens, but his instinct is not to resign. He's an old schoolpolitician who believes quitting is for losers."
Samak has insisted he will never stand aside or call a snapelection, dismissing the protesters from the People's Alliancefor Democracy (PAD) as a mob.
Newspapers have speculated about the case being ashort-term solution to the stalemate, after the declaration ofa state of emergency last week when a man died in a streetbattle between pro- and anti-government groups.
Tuesday's ruling is unusually fast for Thai courts, wherecases can linger for years.
"That could be one of the ways out for a lot of people,"political scientist Panitan Wattanayagorn of Bangkok'sChulalongkorn University said.
A ruling against Samak could lift Thai shares on Tuesday,traders said. The main index rose 3.08 percent on Monday, butstill lagged behind other Asian markets.
It could also resolve nothing, legal experts said, sinceSamak could become prime minister again as long as his rulingsix-party coalition stuck together and chose him as its leader.
CRISIS WON'T END
One of his ministers, Chaiya Sasomsap, did just that,standing down as health minister after the court disqualifiedhim on account of his wife's shareholdings, before returning tothe cabinet weeks later as commerce minister.
"Even if Samak has to go, the crisis won't end," SomyosChamchoy of brokerage Kasikorn Research said.
"Parliament will vote for him as the prime minister againand the coalition partners will stick together."
The embattled prime minister appeared in court on Monday,denying he was paid a salary by a private media company to dothe shows "Tasting, Grumbling" and "Touring at 6 a.m.".
"I was hired, but not their employee," Samak told the courtin a televised hearing. He gave up hosting the shows in April,more than two months after he was sworn in as prime minister.
The constitution bans the prime minister and cabinetministers from working for profit-oriented private entities.
The case stems from a complaint made by senators on May 25,the day the PAD launched its street campaign against Samak.
He has proposed a referendum on his seven-month rule, butthe PAD has rejected the move.
The highly politicised military has insisted it will notintervene, but senior officers acknowledge the political crisishas reached a stalemate.
Analysts say Samak's offer to hold a referendum makes itharder to force his removal through intervention either by themilitary or by revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who has steppedinto disputes in the past.
In 2006, when then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra wasfacing a prolonged campaign by the PAD, the king told thecountry's top judges to resolve the political "mess" after theopposition boycotted a general election.
The courts annulled the result of the stymied Aprilelection, but their efforts to make further headway werethwarted by the military's staging of a coup against Thaksin inSeptember 2006.
(Additional reporting by Chalathip Thirasoonthrakul;Writing by Darren Schuettler; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnanand Jerry Norton)
