By Dan Williams
TEL AVIV (Reuters) - Israel has spent years training for apossible bombing run against Iranian nuclear sites but its airforce may be too small to finish the job alone, officials andindependent experts said on Saturday.
Citing unidentified Pentagon sources, the New York Timessaid on Friday that more than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 jetstook part in a long-range Mediterranean exercise this monththat appeared to be practice for real sorties over Iran.
Israel did not confirm that the reported exercise had takenplace. But officials said such drills have been commonplace atleast since 2005, when air force chief Dan Halutz becameoverall military commander with a mandate to enhancepreparations for any confrontation with the Jewish state'sarch-foes.
"We are talking about regular 'large-package' manoeuvresinvolving scores of aircraft, which are clearly aimed at Iran,given the scale and distances involved," said one official.
For now, Israel has said it backs U.S.-led efforts to reinin Iran through sanctions. But like the United States, it hashinted at military force should diplomacy be deemed a dead end.
Officials, who declined to be identified given thecensorship around Israel's strategic capabilities, said the airforce would be unlikely to deliver more than a one-time blow toan Iranian nuclear programme, which international expertsbelieve may require as many as 1,000 strikes to be destroyed.
"A hundred warplanes are enough for a raid but they do notmake for an air campaign, and that is what is needed to dealconclusively with Iran's capabilities," an official said.
"Israel wants to go it alone against Iran as a last resortonly."
Asked why the exercise might have been leaked in the UnitedStates, the official said only: "There's a lot ofbrinkmanship."
Israel, which is believed to have the region's only atomicarsenal, bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osiraq in 1981. LastSeptember, it mounted a similar raid against a Syrian site thatthe United States described as a secret reactor built withNorth Korean help -- a charge denied by Damascus.
Sam Gardiner, a retired U.S. air force colonel who nowstages wargames for various government agencies in Washington,said Iran's nuclear facilities were too distant, numerous andfortified for Israel to tackle unilaterally.
"The United States thinks in terms of around 1,000 'aimpoints' while an Israeli strike would be against around 100'aim points,'" he said, adding that such a mission would be"disruptive" rather than "destructive".
"What I'm hearing from many in Washington is that if thejob is going to be done, Israel does not really have thecapability to do it," Gardiner said.
Disrupting Iran's plans may, however, be an Israeli goal initself. Israel and the United States have said Iran may haveamassed enough enriched uranium to build a bomb in the nextdecade. although Iran insists its nuclear programme is forenergy needs only.
A 2006 study by Whitney Raas and Austin Long, two strategicscholars at MIT, found that Israel's air force couldeffectively attack select Iranian nuclear targets.
"The operation appears to be no more risky than the earlierattack on Osiraq and provides at least as much benefit in termsof delaying Iranian development of nuclear weapons," theywrote.
An Israeli general described the MIT report as "sound".
"A nuclear programme is operated through a chain offacilities, and like any chain, this has weak links," thegeneral said. "Massive force might be useful, but it's notnecessarily required."
(Editing by Catherine Evans)
